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Message edited 3/18/2013 7:08:48 PM.

What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

This question came up within my family and I am going to answer honestly. DH & I would have loved to live south of Merrick, and I had plans on focusing down there when it was time to sell our house because I LOVE the water. But just to answer your question honestly, I told him the other day I would never go south of Sunrise at this point. Weather forecasters are predicting these type of storms are not going to be a once in 40 years type of thing anymore, and after seeing this, the water scares the shit out of me. I know so many people who have lost everything and to me it's not worth the chance. I am so sorry for the loss you have to deal with. I hope everything works out for you :) I am sure there are a ton of people out there who feel opposite of me, so you will sell your house, but this is just me.

What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

My goal prior to sandy was to get south of montauk in Sayville. After sandy, Im glad i live north of the LIE. I will make it back to Sayville/ Bayport area, but it will be north of montauk.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

Message edited 11/1/2012 10:25:39 AM.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

Dune Road loses at least one house a year, but people just keep right on building. In a few months, the collective memory of Sandy will be forgotten for the most part, and people will still want to buy near the water. It happens after every major storm....Gloria, Irene, etc. After each of those storms people said they wouldn't buy a house near the water... but obviously, people did...

What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

It depends on where you are. My brother lives on a canal in Oakdale and because of the way the houses on his block are situated on the properties, none of the houses were flooded. All of the properties are somewhat raised - so even though the yards are flat, they are high from the water level. Part of his back yard got water in it and the street got a bit flooded, but the water did not reach the homes. But, in the Idle Hour section of Oakdale, eveything is much lower and many homes are flooded.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

DH were saying yesterday we are so relieved now that a house we loved fell through when we were buying...in Seaford, south of Merrick. I have no desire to live by the water, but didn't before either for this fear.

What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

Honestly I had really wanted a house south of Montauk Hwy when we were looking but we just went in contract on a house just north of Montauk and now I am grateful that we did. I currently rent on the water and it's a disaster

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

This thought has crossed my mind since Sandy and our basement filled to the ceiling with water.

I think there will always be a demand though. Especially if people have money.

People who are middle/working class may think twice though since it's going to be harder to make ends meet.

With that said, I wonder if this could make areas away from the water more desirable/costly?

ETA: I wonder what is going to happen with h/o insurance in general for all of us who live on Long Island since so many areas were affected.

Message edited 11/1/2012 5:50:53 PM.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

I live south of Merrick Road, right down the block from a canal. We lost half our basement due to flooding and oir garage flooded too which caused DHs 2 cars to be ruined (jury is still put, the water covered the trunk). We are both done after Sandy. We got flooded after Irene and had to file FEMA claims and State Farm claims, waited 6 months to get reimbursed for water heater/furnace/washer/dryer replacement and now we have to go through this charade again.

Once we get the house fixed up, we are putting it on the market and moving out of the south shore. I just hope we have a buyer.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

DH and I have been looking at a few south shore towns for a while. Originally, we said we absolutely had to be north of montauk highway. Then as we time went on and we didn't find what we wanted we opened ourselves more and more to areas close to the water (south of montauk highway). After this hurricane, we are back to our original plan which is north of montauk highway only.

I should add that DH and I don't have a boat. There are some people that will want to live on the water no matter what. But I do think that Irene and Sandy will make people think twice.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

DH and I have been talking about this the last couple of days. We have a house in Long Beach and this b!tch Sandy has destroyed the first level. We had planned on holding this house as long as we could to hopefully one day turn a profit on it but we are losing every month, and now with the damage, I just dont know what we are going to do. So we considered selling it and taking the loss once we have it restored from the damage. But in considering selling, I just don't think people are going to even want to touch property in Long Beach anytime soon, it's just too fresh in everyone's heads. We are hoping and praying that in a year or 2 from now, people will start to forget and embrace Long Beach again. It's such a great city, but I can't deal with this stress ever again

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

Another thought I had after this happened is making our home a rental.

I know there's a lot of cons in that too though.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

To answer you honestly yes I do think it will turn away some buyers . In fact when dh And I were house hunting I did a lot of research. We were considering the south shore but only liked some towns south of Merrick rd. I knew about the flood zone issues there and ultimately chose a north shore town instead. I just could not buy south shore with the elevation level of those towns and of course now I am glad my gut told me not to do it. I am sorry if that is hard to hear but only time will tell.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

Unfortunately, it is what it is. I have never really been a fan of this island in general. Hope that doesn't offend anyone, but after this happening, it's even more reason for us to get the hell out of dodge.

In the meantime, we will fix our house and hope for the best that this IS just a once in a lifetime thing.

I come from an area in Upstate, NY and I know of people who were royally screwed in storms when rivers and streams flooded.

I think you can potentially be taking your chances anywhere these days when you purchase a home.

I also know not everyone believes in it, but I really think there is something to this global warming thing.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

I think it's hard to say right now, everything is too raw. 5 years from now things may recover a bit. I was reading about real estate post-Katrina a little bit and it looks like they are starting to recover and people are buying there again. I know what we experienced dosent compare but it's hopeful.

Perhaps this will prompt LI to figure out how to lessen the blow if heaven forbid this happens again. Drainage systems, ect. I know we are going to professionally waterproof our basment and get the most water protective basment windows we can if possible. I know it wouldn't prevent everything but in a catastrophic event it could lessen the blow to some puddles instead. People may realize this and hopefully want to be part of our great school districts and great community i have grown to love. im trying to be positive now.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

My sister rents in Long Beach and is getting married next year. My FBIL is a surfer and they were definitely going to shop for a home in Long Beach after the wedding. Now they are definitely NOT. Just one family, but I wonder how many more feel the same way.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

i think it will definitely deter people from buying near the water now, at least for a few years anyway.. i live in a south shore town but far enough from the water thank goodness. we actually did look at houses by the water and i'm glad we didn't buy there... i feel so terrible seeing how much people lost.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

I find the answers here very interesting. My take on it is that people always want to live near the beach/docks and will risk a lot for it. I see it year after year on Fire Island and I saw it growing up on the north shore in an area where some people are water front and everyone else is close to the water.

Since I started going to Fire Island regularly in 1997 I have seen many ocean front houses lost in storms and I have heard stories from homeowners whose homes became ocean front after storms pre-1997. Fire Island was destroyed by the hurricane of 1938 but that was not what people chose to remember about it. I was always in the minority in saying that I would not be comfortable owning one of the first 3 houses off the ocean. I have paid a premium to rent in those houses anyway.

I know that a vacation home can be seen as a different animal but I have noticed that a huge number of people want that proximity to the water both at home and on vacation. Or maybe I just know a lot of beach lovers.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

If I've learned anything from being in real estate, it's that there's a buyer for every house in every area. And I've learned not to put my own judgments and preferences out there, because they are irrelevant and may be very different from the judgments and preferences of the buyers I am working with. Think about the strong opinions on this site -- some people say "I would never live x or send my kids to y school," while others vehemently disagree and love x area or y school.

Sure, there are some people who will not buy on the south shore after the storm, but those are probably the same people who wouldn't have really wanted to live there BEFORE the storm. I have had many buyers who don't want to have to pay for flood insurance, and rule out any areas that would require it.

But there are other buyers who WANT to live down by the water... they are boaters or they enjoy a waterfront lifestyle, or just like the idea of it. In Bellmore and Merrick, where I do a lot of work, there is definitely a south v. north dichotomy, and some people ONLY want south Bellmore or south Merrick because they prefer the area, the schools, think the homes have more value, etc. In the wake of the storm, that may change for a few people, but probably not the majority. I know people whose homes were severely damaged after Irene, in areas like south Bellmore and Freeport, and those people chose to stay and repair their homes versus moving to another area. And plenty of people still wanted to live down south of Merrick Rd/Montauk Highway after Irene, although the damage was not as severe and widespread as after Sandy.

Also, I think it's important to remember that in this area, storms like Sandy are a rarity (thankfully). My parents live south of Merrick Rd. in Seaford - they've lived there for almost 33 years - and their house flooded with 3-4 feet of water during the storm from nearby canals for the first time EVER since they've owned it. Unlike the southeastern U.S., we are lucky that we live in an area where tropical storms and hurricanes are not the norm. So many factors had to line up to wreak this kind of havoc and destruction, and unfortunately they did, but I think the experts said there was a 1 in 1000 chance of this all happening.

So I think buyers who are drawn to the areas near the water will still think the pros outweigh the cons in their cost/benefit analysis that everyone does (consciously or unconsciously) when buying a home. After all, we do live on an island, and people have always lived on the north and south shores, not just in the middle!

All that being said, my heart goes out to everyone who has sustained losses in this horrible storm. If I can be of assistance to anyone during this difficult time of recovery, even just to answer a question, please don't hesitate to contact me.

Re: What will happen to Real Estate on the South Shore?

Legitimate waterfront property is always prime real estate - even pseudo waterfront property is prime ......
People love to live near the ocean, on the water - they love their boats ......it's a lifestyle.

it will come back .......