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SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by DjPiLL
Posted by SweetestOfPeas
I know people who have left NY and made MORE
ETA: not everyone that lives on LI works in the city. LI companies do not compensate like they do in the city.
why do you think there are so many people leaving this area? it's not a coincidence
The average salary outside of NYC is less (for most cities and professions). Its a fact of life, backed up by years of statistics.
Yes you can leave and maybe make more (maybe you were underpaid). Not everyone that lives in LI works in NYC (but a lot do).
But look on salary.com... then compare salaries between cities.
Here is an example.
Messaging Engineer 25th%ile Median 75th%ile
New York, NY ___ $88,914 $101,580 $112,313
Los Angeles, CA $84,922 $97,019 $107,270
Washington, DC $79,817 $91,186 $100,821
Miami, FL ______ $75,240 $85,957 $95,040
NYC still makes more than big metro cities like LA and Washington. And have you seen what the RE markets look like in the LA area and DC suburbs? Its just as high priced as it is in Long Island!
since you like stats, here is one for you. the avg household income on LI is around $75K a year. sure, many earn well above that (we do), but many earn less.
the people that are making that avg salary (or even above it), do you think they can afford a $500K fixer?
and just because salary.com (totally exaggerated by the way) says $XXX is the avg salary, doesn't make it true.
another statistic for you... people are leaving this area more than any other metro area in the country. CNN article
"Of the 25 largest metro areas, the New York region lost the most people, with an average annual net outflow of 211,014 residents from 2000 through 2004. That calculates to an average loss of 11.4 people per thousand per year. The median house price in the New York area last year was $427,600, about twice the national median"
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Posted 4/24/06 7:18 PM  |
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Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate
Long Island's Largest Bridal Resource | Long Island Weddings |
Redhead
You Live, You Learn
Member since 5/05 31871 total posts
Name:
Jennifer
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
that is why a huge potion of the LI population is MOVING OUT...
1. can't afford the homes
2. can't afford the ever increasing taxes
3. and even if they can afford the above...they can't afford the childcare costs that are the only option to the 2 family income...
4. most of us will not be able to retire here anyway...
the youth of LI is screwed
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| Posted 4/24/06 7:25 PM |
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Redhead
You Live, You Learn
Member since 5/05 31871 total posts
Name:
Jennifer
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by dandr10199
Posted by Redhead
well....either way i hope you are right...
MAMA NEED A HOME ASAP 
 You will get one soon, I just know it. 
thanks 
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| Posted 4/24/06 7:25 PM |
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MrsR
My love.
Member since 5/05 6247 total posts
Name:
Jennifer
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
The market will always fluctuate - that is the way it is. You can talk about it until you are blue in the face...the truth is that if you buy now for the long term - you can pretty much guarantee that when you are ready to sell in 25-30+ years the house will be worth more than what you bought it for today. It's called inflation.
If you are buying for the short term, or for investment purposes you have to be much more cautious of prices, interest rates, etc...
And I also want to add that if you are planning on staying in your home long term, then it doesn't matter if the market goes down - as long as you are not selling...then it really doesn't affect you at that time.
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| Posted 4/24/06 8:01 PM |
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Teri
my girls!
Member since 2/06 1491 total posts
Name:
Teri
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
I think it will level off a bit....the ridiculously overpriced homes won't sell as fast, but I don't expect to see anything too dramatic. I live next door to a house that's been on the market for almost a year...it's about $100k overpriced and in need of a lot of work - so sure, that will stay on a while, but others in my area are purchased rather quickly at still a good price.
A big reason I don't see LI ever being too negatively affected is it's proximity to NYC....since we're an actual island, there are only so many homes that can be built here....it's not like you can keep moving farther out as the city (and the outskirts) continues to grow. So the homes will always be of value IMO.
Message edited 4/24/2006 8:08:07 PM.
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| Posted 4/24/06 8:07 PM |
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schnapy
LIF Adolescent
Member since 9/05 766 total posts
Name:
Diana
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
I think you can find some good buys now, but as I said before the burst isnt going to send home prices crashing to what they were 7years ago.
We paid $400k for our house last year, we just had it priced by a realtor and based on stats, we could probably get about $500k.
OUr house has been totally renovated from soup to nuts, last year when were were looking there was no way for $500k were you getting a house that was up to date with new baths, kitchen etc
So in that sense, one could say the bubble is bursting. But Im still leary on the word "bursting"
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| Posted 4/25/06 6:21 AM |
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sunnyplus3
:)
Member since 11/05 8749 total posts
Name:
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
while I'm in agreement that the climate is changing that article's author seemed a bit of an alarmist. I think I'm older than a lot of people on here because I clearly remember the 1987-1993ish real estate horror on Long Island. Just one quick example, I rented a condo from a couple that bought it new in the late 80's. They had a couple of kids back to back & outgrew their starter home. Unfortunatley the market shifted enough in those few years so they owed at 50k more than they could get for it. (50k was HUGE at that time-the house was originally sold for 123k). There were houses for sale everywhere & since they couldn't sell it they kept it & rented it out for enough to barely cover the mortgage. They bought a house in the next town. After a few years normal things started to go wrong with the condo, like the over the range micro & garage door broke. I remember my landlord stressing because he had broken stuff in the house he was living in but he had to come fix stuff & spend $ on the condo. It was a huge strain for them & they never had intentions of being investors.
Now there was a happy ending to their story-5 years later I moved out & they sold it for $153,000. Two years ago it sold again for $323,00 but they didn't have the luxury of riding out the complete cycle. That is how people start to get screwed. If that poor guy lost his job what would have happened?
I'm not saying the market is going to burst, but I'm positive that there are going to be alot of distress type situations. Too many people with ARMs & IOs that have nothing left for a rainy day. In the area I live in now, there was a time foreclosures were everywhere because Grumman closed...its been a while since something big like that happened to LI but it could certainly come again.
Then when the distress sales start popping up & homes are going at bargain prices it affects the whole climate, its a process but we are on our way.
You will have people that NEED to get out of their homes that they paid way too much for & now have negative equity, but they'll have to become renters or leave LI because with the higher intrest rates (I predict close to 8% by 2008) they won't be able to afford a shack.
Boom 1989 all over again.
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| Posted 4/25/06 7:43 AM |
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MsMBV
:P
Member since 5/05 28602 total posts
Name:
Me
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by Beth1210
level off is a good word- 2 years ago people were willing to pay anything for a house- and now they are selling below asking price
the market has changed- but I don't think it's going to Burst
I agree. Since the interest rates have risen, the houses have leveled off. I don't think that right now it is going to burst, but I do think that if the gas prices continue to climb the way they have been we might be in for a bad market here. The taxes here have gone up too, and if the gas prices see $4.00 or more per gallon I am afraid that to some extent the home market on LI might come to a screeching halt.
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| Posted 4/25/06 8:03 AM |
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schnapy
LIF Adolescent
Member since 9/05 766 total posts
Name:
Diana
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by KellyFG
while I'm in agreement that the climate is changing that article's author seemed a bit of an alarmist. I think I'm older than a lot of people on here because I clearly remember the 1987-1993ish real estate horror on Long Island. Just one quick example, I rented a condo from a couple that bought it new in the late 80's. They had a couple of kids back to back & outgrew their starter home. Unfortunatley the market shifted enough in those few years so they owed at 50k more than they could get for it. (50k was HUGE at that time-the house was originally sold for 123k). There were houses for sale everywhere & since they couldn't sell it they kept it & rented it out for enough to barely cover the mortgage. They bought a house in the next town. After a few years normal things started to go wrong with the condo, like the over the range micro & garage door broke. I remember my landlord stressing because he had broken stuff in the house he was living in but he had to come fix stuff & spend $ on the condo. It was a huge strain for them & they never had intentions of being investors.
Now there was a happy ending to their story-5 years later I moved out & they sold it for $153,000. Two years ago it sold again for $323,00 but they didn't have the luxury of riding out the complete cycle. That is how people start to get screwed. If that poor guy lost his job what would have happened?
I'm not saying the market is going to burst, but I'm positive that there are going to be alot of distress type situations. Too many people with ARMs & IOs that have nothing left for a rainy day. In the area I live in now, there was a time foreclosures were everywhere because Grumman closed...its been a while since something big like that happened to LI but it could certainly come again.
Then when the distress sales start popping up & homes are going at bargain prices it affects the whole climate, its a process but we are on our way.
You will have people that NEED to get out of their homes that they paid way too much for & now have negative equity, but they'll have to become renters or leave LI because with the higher intrest rates (I predict close to 8% by 2008) they won't be able to afford a shack.
Boom 1989 all over again.
i agree with the interest only loans and arm loans.
THey expect many foreclosures, I remember when we were looking brokers kept saying oh we your salary and scores you guys can afford more. You can do interest only blah blah. No way. I think many people in the past couple of years bought houses that YOU NEED 2 Salaries to pay the mortgage. Cause the mortgage brokers made it look so easy. Which can be tricky, our house may be ****, but I can sleep at night and we can still bank one salary.
Its a tough market
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| Posted 4/25/06 8:28 AM |
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Teri
my girls!
Member since 2/06 1491 total posts
Name:
Teri
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Kelly, ITA. I don't remember that last re issue (too young!) but I know of a lot of new homeowners with ARM mortgages, etc that will have to refinance in a few yrs and I hope it works out for them.
We were sooo tempted to do that when we bought, but didn't want to feel rushed if, at the end of that adjustment period, we wanted to stay in the house a bit longer.
I do get a bit concerned b/c this is our starter home though......we can't live in this house forever since it's still small, so I hope that when we want to upgrade, we're still able to.
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| Posted 4/25/06 10:07 AM |
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DjPiLL
Member since 5/05 3664 total posts
Name:
Richard
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by Teri
A big reason I don't see LI ever being too negatively affected is it's proximity to NYC....since we're an actual island, there are only so many homes that can be built here....it's not like you can keep moving farther out as the city (and the outskirts) continues to grow. So the homes will always be of value IMO.
BINGO! This is exactly what I meant when I said its proximity to NYC. But you made a great point with the "island" aspect.
There is no land left! No place to build.
Overall... Long Island has a GREAT reputation for being a "nice" neighborhood with above average schools.
If you tell someone you live in "Long Island"... thats usually a good thing. Long Island overall is well known for being a VERY desireable area.
And as far as the issues with salary.com a poster here mentioned... I actually find that website very accurate (at least in my field). If you don't find it accurate... maybe you are being underpaid? 
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| Posted 4/25/06 1:01 PM |
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DjPiLL
Member since 5/05 3664 total posts
Name:
Richard
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by KellyFG
while I'm in agreement that the climate is changing that article's author seemed a bit of an alarmist. I think I'm older than a lot of people on here because I clearly remember the 1987-1993ish real estate horror on Long Island.
My MIL bought her house during this time and paid TOP DOLLAR. Yeah RE went down the tubes during that time.... but you have to remember real estate is a long term investment.
Some people go nuts if godforbid their house depreciates 10% in value. They associate the RE market with the Stock market. You can't do that.
Fast forward to now... my MIL's house is worth PLENTY. She is very well off and very glad she made what was a questionable decision at the time.
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| Posted 4/25/06 1:04 PM |
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sunnyplus3
:)
Member since 11/05 8749 total posts
Name:
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by DjPiLL
Posted by KellyFG
while I'm in agreement that the climate is changing that article's author seemed a bit of an alarmist. I think I'm older than a lot of people on here because I clearly remember the 1987-1993ish real estate horror on Long Island.
My MIL bought her house during this time and paid TOP DOLLAR. Yeah RE went down the tubes during that time.... but you have to remember real estate is a long term investment.
Some people go nuts if godforbid their house depreciates 10% in value. They associate the RE market with the Stock market. You can't do that.
Fast forward to now... my MIL's house is worth PLENTY. She is very well off and very glad she made what was a questionable decision at the time.
I agree with your point about it being long term, it sure is for me. Unfortunatley though it won't be for alot of people for various reasons & depending on what else happens with local industry, the economy, ect that will determine how many people will be in a bad spot.
By this time next year we'll start seeing the "distress sale" listings in the paper. Between now & then the # of "owner transfered" listings will just keep increasing as more people start to bail out of LI because they are over extended & they think it will be "easier" somewhere else. In the meantime, there will be foreclosures. The foreclosure rate was up 15% nationally for Jan 06.
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| Posted 4/25/06 1:13 PM |
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DjPiLL
Member since 5/05 3664 total posts
Name:
Richard
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by SweetestOfPeas
since you like stats, here is one for you. the avg household income on LI is around $75K a year. sure, many earn well above that (we do), but many earn less.
Actually let me correct your statement. And lets stick to Nassau County because of its proximity to NYC.
Linky
The *MEDIAN* Nassau County household income is about 78k.
Thats the MEDIAN figure. Not the average. You do know the difference right?
The median figure is the middle figure of a pool of statistics. The median number seems much smaller because there are a NUMBER of households that make under this amount... but not too much under. These households are probably associated with towns in Nassau where the RE prices are significantly lower.
On the other side of the median scale... the people that make more than the median... are the people that make a LOT more than the median.
Which is why... the AVERAGE (not the median) Nassau county household income is 110k.
Linky
And yeah... I do like statistics. 
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| Posted 4/25/06 1:16 PM |
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SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by DjPiLL
Posted by SweetestOfPeas
since you like stats, here is one for you. the avg household income on LI is around $75K a year. sure, many earn well above that (we do), but many earn less.
Actually let me correct your statement. And lets stick to Nassau County because of its proximity to NYC.
Linky
The *MEDIAN* Nassau County household income is about 78k.
Thats the MEDIAN figure. Not the average. You do know the difference right?
The median figure is the middle figure of a pool of statistics. The median number seems much smaller because there are a NUMBER of households that make under this amount... but not too much under. These households are probably associated with towns in Nassau where the RE prices are significantly lower.
On the other side of the median scale... the people that make more than the median... are the people that make a LOT more than the median.
Which is why... the AVERAGE (not the median) Nassau county household income is 110k.
Linky
And yeah... I do like statistics.
the link you provided supports the CNN article I posted about how NY is losing more people than anywhere else in the country.
"In our study, we determined that the average local tax burden per household, including property taxes and local income taxes, is $6,056 in Nassau, $4,182 in Westchester, $3,818 in Suffolk, and $2,984 in New York City. In other words, the people of Nassau County pay nearly 50 percent more than those in Westchester, 60 percent more than their neighbors in Suffolk and more than double what the residents of New York City pay."
and
"Economists say that with the median home price in Nassau now $437,000, more than half of Nassau residents could not afford to buy their own houses based on their incomes. Meanwhile, they are being squeezed on local taxes - primarily school taxes - based on the premise that they are affluent because of their property values."
thanks for the info, it certainly makes sense why people are leaving.
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| Posted 4/25/06 3:50 PM |
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