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dandg
LIF Zygote
Member since 1/06 46 total posts
Name:
Gerard
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Is Long Island Next?
Very interesting article about whats going on in real estate all over the country. Is LI the next big city to burst?? I hope so for the buyers sake. Take a look.......
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P149596.asp
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Posted 4/24/06 2:38 PM  |
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DjPiLL
Member since 5/05 3664 total posts
Name:
Richard
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by dandg
Very interesting article about whats going on in real estate all over the country. Is LI the next big city to burst?? I hope so for the buyers sake. Take a look.......
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P149596.asp
Burst? No because Long Island happens to be located right next to New York City... the largest city in the country.
People will still want to work in New York City to make the bucks. They have to live somewhere.
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| Posted 4/24/06 2:49 PM |
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schnapy
LIF Adolescent
Member since 9/05 766 total posts
Name:
Diana
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
i DONT KNOW ABOUT BURSTING I THINK PLATEAUING.
THEY HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR 2 YEARS NOW. THE MARKET ISNT GOING TO CRASH, IT WILL LEVEL OFF. AND PERSONALLY EVEN THOUGH MANY PEOPLE ARE LEAVING MANY ARE MOVING IN
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| Posted 4/24/06 2:51 PM |
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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
level off is a good word- 2 years ago people were willing to pay anything for a house- and now they are selling below asking price
the market has changed- but I don't think it's going to Burst
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| Posted 4/24/06 2:57 PM |
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dandr10199
Grace is growing up too fast!
Member since 10/05 11561 total posts
Name:
Dina
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by Beth1210
level off is a good word- 2 years ago people were willing to pay anything for a house- and now they are selling below asking price
the market has changed- but I don't think it's going to Burst
I agree. I feel it will go down about 3-6% from last year and level off there.
Message edited 4/24/2006 3:41:32 PM.
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| Posted 4/24/06 3:05 PM |
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Heather617
My Babies
Member since 5/05 2566 total posts
Name:
Heather
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
I don't think it will burst. I definitely think that it is leveling off and my decrease slightly.
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| Posted 4/24/06 3:15 PM |
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dandg
LIF Zygote
Member since 1/06 46 total posts
Name:
Gerard
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by DjPiLL
Posted by dandg
Very interesting article about whats going on in real estate all over the country. Is LI the next big city to burst?? I hope so for the buyers sake. Take a look.......
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P149596.asp
Burst? No because Long Island happens to be located right next to New York City... the largest city in the country.
People will still want to work in New York City to make the bucks. They have to live somewhere.
People want to work in LA, Miami and DC as well, thats where the big money is 2. From reading the article it doesnt matter where you live if there is a frothy market and LI is the 2nd highest frothy market in the country. I cant imagine people paying these ridiculous prices for crap homes on LI or in surrounding areas for much longer.
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| Posted 4/24/06 3:35 PM |
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schnapy
LIF Adolescent
Member since 9/05 766 total posts
Name:
Diana
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
yeah but I dont think where the average house sells for lets say $450 will go down to $350.
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| Posted 4/24/06 3:39 PM |
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Maathy317
Grammie's Little Man
Member since 2/06 3235 total posts
Name:
D
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
I have lived in my home for almost 28 years and have seen the "bubble" burst before. We are definitely in a buyers market; the same kind we were in over 10 years ago. There are 74% more homes on the market than a year ago at this time; they are staying on the market longer; and, most importantly, owners are reducing the original asking price. We were on the verge of moving and I have been keeping track of houses up for sale and I see the same trend as before. When the market made this turn the last time, it was very difficult to sell a house. While the price of homes has risen dramatically since the last time, the result is still the same. If owners are willing to wait for their price, then, eventually, the market will turn in their favor again. Not everyone can afford to do that because of their individual circumstances. If I was buying, I would start looking now. In this market you can find good deals.
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| Posted 4/24/06 3:54 PM |
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DjPiLL
Member since 5/05 3664 total posts
Name:
Richard
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by dandg
People want to work in LA, Miami and DC as well, thats where the big money is 2. From reading the article it doesnt matter where you live if there is a frothy market and LI is the 2nd highest frothy market in the country. I cant imagine people paying these ridiculous prices for crap homes on LI or in surrounding areas for much longer.
I'll believe it when I see it. People have been trying to time this "bubble burst" for over two years now.
While people want to work in those other cities... there aren't nearly as many jobs available in those cities as there are in NYC. The salaries in those cities aren't as high as NYC either.
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| Posted 4/24/06 3:57 PM |
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DjPiLL
Member since 5/05 3664 total posts
Name:
Richard
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by Maathy317
There are 74% more homes on the market than a year ago at this time; they are staying on the market longer
When the articles say this... I find it very misleading.
You really can't go by the amount of housing thats on the market. Yeah there may be 74% more housing available... but how much of that 74% consist of sellers merely "testing the selling waters". They aren't serious sellers.
Its FREE to list your home with an agent and get on MLS. Its not costing a homeowner anything to see if they can manage to "sell high".
Perfect example: MrsTC put a FSBO sign in front of her house last week. Is she now included in this 74% because there is a sign out there in front of her house? Is she DEFINITELY selling to the highest bidder?
She never said she was "serious" about selling. In fact... if I remember correctly she said she would "see what happens". She isn't even sure where she is going to move to.
I think a lot of homeowners that are selling fall into this category. Sure the people that MUST sell (job relocation, divorce, expanding family) may take less cause they don't have a choice.
But the people that are "testing the waters"... I don't see this group coming down in price.
This is why you also read a lot of stories about buyers and sellers currently at a "standoff" when it comes to negotiating a price.
If you are in no rush to sell... why are you going to lower your price?
The only thing you can go by are actual sales figures. And while inventory has been at an all-time high for the past six months... the average sales price for a Nassau or Suffolk house really hasn't changed much in this time.
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| Posted 4/24/06 4:15 PM |
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SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by DjPiLL
Posted by dandg
People want to work in LA, Miami and DC as well, thats where the big money is 2. From reading the article it doesnt matter where you live if there is a frothy market and LI is the 2nd highest frothy market in the country. I cant imagine people paying these ridiculous prices for crap homes on LI or in surrounding areas for much longer.
I'll believe it when I see it. People have been trying to time this "bubble burst" for over two years now.
While people want to work in those other cities... there aren't nearly as many jobs available in those cities as there are in NYC. The salaries in those cities aren't as high as NYC either.
why are you under the impression that people don't make the kind of money they do in NYC? people get higher paying jobs than NYC everyday.
I know people who have left NY and made MORE
ETA: not everyone that lives on LI works in the city. LI companies do not compensate like they do in the city.
why do you think there are so many people leaving this area? it's not a coincidence
Message edited 4/24/2006 4:36:15 PM.
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| Posted 4/24/06 4:34 PM |
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DjPiLL
Member since 5/05 3664 total posts
Name:
Richard
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by SweetestOfPeas
I know people who have left NY and made MORE
ETA: not everyone that lives on LI works in the city. LI companies do not compensate like they do in the city.
why do you think there are so many people leaving this area? it's not a coincidence
The average salary outside of NYC is less (for most cities and professions). Its a fact of life, backed up by years of statistics.
Yes you can leave and maybe make more (maybe you were underpaid). Not everyone that lives in LI works in NYC (but a lot do).
But look on salary.com... then compare salaries between cities.
Here is an example.
Messaging Engineer 25th%ile Median 75th%ile
New York, NY ___ $88,914 $101,580 $112,313
Los Angeles, CA $84,922 $97,019 $107,270
Washington, DC $79,817 $91,186 $100,821
Miami, FL ______ $75,240 $85,957 $95,040
NYC still makes more than big metro cities like LA and Washington. And have you seen what the RE markets look like in the LA area and DC suburbs? Its just as high priced as it is in Long Island!
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| Posted 4/24/06 5:04 PM |
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Maathy317
Grammie's Little Man
Member since 2/06 3235 total posts
Name:
D
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
To say that you can't go by the amount of houses on the market is naive. The amount of houses on the market determines whether or not the prices will fall or rise. While it is true that listing with an agent costs nothing, a contract is still signed and any agent worth his or her salt will not sign anyone who is only "testing the waters". Too much goes into trying to sell a home for any agent to be bothered with any seller like this. Yes, it is, also, true that any home can be pulled from the market at any time because the seller cannot get their price. These are the people who are willing to wait. FSBO sellers are most definitely included, whether they are serious or not. While the average sales price for a home in Nassau and Suffolk has not changed much in the last six months, and, in fact, has actually risen a bit, we have just entered a buyers market. People are still trying to get the high prices their neighbors may have gotten last year. Reality will set in shortly. On my block alone, there are three houses for sale. Last year, these homes would have sold immediately. Now, they are taking longer and prices are being dropped. Anyone who believes that the market is as good as it was last year at this time is looking at the world through rose colored glasses.
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| Posted 4/24/06 5:10 PM |
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lululu
LIF Adult
Member since 7/05 9511 total posts
Name:
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
I always take these articles with a grain of salt. Clearly the amount of homes on the market is a factor, however you can not just take it alone without looking at other aspects of the market. It is the whole supply & demand curve and houses may be priced too high this year but without knowing how steep the curve is its hard to predict the impact that a marginal price reduction would have on the supply of homes. I think that there will be an adjustment but since houses are still closing up 10% what they were closing at last year, I think its a little premature to worry about the bubble bursting. Just my opinion though.
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| Posted 4/24/06 5:18 PM |
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DjPiLL
Member since 5/05 3664 total posts
Name:
Richard
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by Maathy317
To say that you can't go by the amount of houses on the market is naive. The amount of houses on the market determines whether or not the prices will fall or rise. While it is true that listing with an agent costs nothing, a contract is still signed and any agent worth his or her salt will not sign anyone who is only "testing the waters". Too much goes into trying to sell a home for any agent to be bothered with any seller like this. Yes, it is, also, true that any home can be pulled from the market at any time because the seller cannot get their price. These are the people who are willing to wait. FSBO sellers are most definitely included, whether they are serious or not. While the average sales price for a home in Nassau and Suffolk has not changed much in the last six months, and, in fact, has actually risen a bit, we have just entered a buyers market.
Buyers market according to who? Some lackey that writes a real estate article or blog?
I think its just as naive to NOT believe that people will go ahead and list their house on the market without being sure they want to sell.
Lets face it... *most* homeowners aren't stupid people. They see a $$$$$ opportunity... they will try to take advantage of it.
You know when you can say its DEFINITELY a buyers market and you can DEFINITELY say the bubble has burst ???.... when you see the following chart figures plummet after a few months. And I am not talking mere 3-5% dips. I am talking drops of 10-20% or more.
Image Attachment(s):
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| Posted 4/24/06 5:42 PM |
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lululu
LIF Adult
Member since 7/05 9511 total posts
Name:
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
I agree - people will list their house just to see if they can get an over inflated price. And I think that realtors will jump on any opportunity to list a house because there is so much competition out there - if you are a realtor and you turn down a listing, someone else will take it. And, I have even seen realtors listing their homes just to see if they can get that really high price or to make their other listings look like a better deal... There is a lot of fluff in all of these statistics and at the end of the day, you just cant rely on any speculative article because it's just that - speculative.
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| Posted 4/24/06 5:58 PM |
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DjPiLL
Member since 5/05 3664 total posts
Name:
Richard
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by lululu
I agree - people will list their house just to see if they can get an over inflated price. And I think that realtors will jump on any opportunity to list a house because there is so much competition out there - if you are a realtor and you turn down a listing, someone else will take it. And, I have even seen realtors listing their homes just to see if they can get that really high price or to make their other listings look like a better deal... There is a lot of fluff in all of these statistics and at the end of the day, you just cant rely on any speculative article because it's just that - speculative.
DING.... we have a winner. 
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| Posted 4/24/06 6:03 PM |
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Suezboss
LIF Infant
Member since 5/05 370 total posts
Name:
Still SueZboss
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by DjPiLL
Posted by Maathy317
There are 74% more homes on the market than a year ago at this time; they are staying on the market longer
When the articles say this... I find it very misleading.
You really can't go by the amount of housing thats on the market. Yeah there may be 74% more housing available... but how much of that 74% consist of sellers merely "testing the selling waters". They aren't serious sellers.
Its FREE to list your home with an agent and get on MLS. Its not costing a homeowner anything to see if they can manage to "sell high".
Perfect example: MrsTC put a FSBO sign in front of her house last week. Is she now included in this 74% because there is a sign out there in front of her house? Is she DEFINITELY selling to the highest bidder?
She never said she was "serious" about selling. In fact... if I remember correctly she said she would "see what happens". She isn't even sure where she is going to move to.
I think a lot of homeowners that are selling fall into this category. Sure the people that MUST sell (job relocation, divorce, expanding family) may take less cause they don't have a choice.
But the people that are "testing the waters"... I don't see this group coming down in price.
This is why you also read a lot of stories about buyers and sellers currently at a "standoff" when it comes to negotiating a price.
If you are in no rush to sell... why are you going to lower your price?
The only thing you can go by are actual sales figures. And while inventory has been at an all-time high for the past six months... the average sales price for a Nassau or Suffolk house really hasn't changed much in this time.
Good point! That is the situation a lot... I konw we're in no rush to move, yet, it's listed... but I don't necesarly have a time line in which we "have" to move, so we can hold out...
Message edited 4/24/2006 6:09:54 PM.
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| Posted 4/24/06 6:06 PM |
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Redhead
You Live, You Learn
Member since 5/05 31871 total posts
Name:
Jennifer
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by schnapy
i DONT KNOW ABOUT BURSTING I THINK PLATEAUING.
THEY HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR 2 YEARS NOW. THE MARKET ISNT GOING TO CRASH, IT WILL LEVEL OFF. AND PERSONALLY EVEN THOUGH MANY PEOPLE ARE LEAVING MANY ARE MOVING IN
it plateaued a while ago
market is turning to the buyers
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| Posted 4/24/06 6:22 PM |
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dandr10199
Grace is growing up too fast!
Member since 10/05 11561 total posts
Name:
Dina
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
I agree with most of what DJPill wrote here. However, I work in the title industry and have seen a decline over last year of about 6% in the amount of purchases. The prices are down about 5-8% over last year on new purchases; not a significant amount. There has been a slight turn towards buyers.
IMHO, most buyer's are appalled at what sellers are asking. Many homes are really not worth what the sellers are asking but ask for a certain price because they want to see if they can get it. Then, the buyer's hold out for a seller who is:
1 - desperate to sell
2 - who is asking a fair price
3 - willing to negotiate
People who "test the waters" are most times unwilling to do these three things. If they do not get "their price" they take it off the market. Two of my neighbors have done this when we lived in Port Washington. When the buyer's feel they are getting a fair price for what is offered, that is when they buy, plain and simple.
IMO, buyer's are willing to wait more now that in the two previous years. Two years ago if you waited, you lost a house you loved. Now if you wait, you can have the price lowered (slightly) or know that you will eventually get the house you want at the price you want.
Sellers need to understand that you cannot ask for $600K if the house is truly worth $530K in the buyer's eyes. Yes, there is more of a "supply" now then in previous years, but that does not mean that the "demand' has dwindled. It means that buyers are more demanding about what they want and are not willing to settle for just anything anymore. I think this is great for the RE business. The prices will come down slightly and more people will purchase homes as long as interest rates stay low. Thus, there will not be a "burst", there will be a small dip, but not a burst.
ETA: this is just based on what I am seeing out there and my own opinoins. I am no Alan Greenspan though. 
Message edited 4/24/2006 6:36:09 PM.
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| Posted 4/24/06 6:32 PM |
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Redhead
You Live, You Learn
Member since 5/05 31871 total posts
Name:
Jennifer
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by dandr10199
I agree with most of what DJPill wrote here. However, I work in the title industry and have seen a decline over last year of about 6% in the amount of purchases. The prices are down about 5-8% over last year on new purchases; not a significant amount. There has been a slight turn towards buyers.
IMHO, most buyer's are appalled at what sellers are asking. Many homes are really not worth what the sellers are asking but ask for a certain price because they want to see if they can get it. Then, the buyer's hold out for a seller who is:
1 - desperate to sell
2 - who is asking a fair price
3 - willing to negotiate
People who "test the waters" are most times unwilling to do these three things. If they do not get "their price" they take it off the market. Two of my neighbors have done this when we lived in Port Washington. When the buyer's feel they are getting a fair price for what is offered, that is when they buy, plain and simple.
IMO, buyer's are willing to wait more now that in the two previous years. Two years ago if you waited, you lost a house you loved. Now if you wait, you can have the price lowered (slightly) or know that you will eventually get the house you want at the price you want.
Sellers need to understand that you cannot ask for $600K if the house is truly worth $530K in the buyer's eyes. Yes, there is more of a "supply" now then in previous years, but that does not mean that the "demand' has dwindled. It means that buyers are more demanding about what they want and are not willing to settle for just anything anymore. I think this is great for the RE business. The prices will come down slightly and more people will purchase homes as long as interest rates stay low. Thus, there will not be a "burst", there will be a small dip, but not a burst.
ETA: this is just based on what I am seeing out there and my own opinoins. I am no Alan Greenspan though.
well said....
although i don't know if it is the buyers that are going to wait it out...
just not sure on that aspect..since i am "the buyer"...and NOT willing to wait much longer...
and by this board alone....you see more people jumping not waiting..
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| Posted 4/24/06 6:53 PM |
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dandr10199
Grace is growing up too fast!
Member since 10/05 11561 total posts
Name:
Dina
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by Redhead
Posted by dandr10199
I agree with most of what DJPill wrote here. However, I work in the title industry and have seen a decline over last year of about 6% in the amount of purchases. The prices are down about 5-8% over last year on new purchases; not a significant amount. There has been a slight turn towards buyers.
IMHO, most buyer's are appalled at what sellers are asking. Many homes are really not worth what the sellers are asking but ask for a certain price because they want to see if they can get it. Then, the buyer's hold out for a seller who is:
1 - desperate to sell
2 - who is asking a fair price
3 - willing to negotiate
People who "test the waters" are most times unwilling to do these three things. If they do not get "their price" they take it off the market. Two of my neighbors have done this when we lived in Port Washington. When the buyer's feel they are getting a fair price for what is offered, that is when they buy, plain and simple.
IMO, buyer's are willing to wait more now that in the two previous years. Two years ago if you waited, you lost a house you loved. Now if you wait, you can have the price lowered (slightly) or know that you will eventually get the house you want at the price you want.
Sellers need to understand that you cannot ask for $600K if the house is truly worth $530K in the buyer's eyes. Yes, there is more of a "supply" now then in previous years, but that does not mean that the "demand' has dwindled. It means that buyers are more demanding about what they want and are not willing to settle for just anything anymore. I think this is great for the RE business. The prices will come down slightly and more people will purchase homes as long as interest rates stay low. Thus, there will not be a "burst", there will be a small dip, but not a burst.
ETA: this is just based on what I am seeing out there and my own opinions. I am no Alan Greenspan though.
well said....
although i don't know if it is the buyers that are going to wait it out...
just not sure on that aspect..since i am "the buyer"...and NOT willing to wait much longer...
and by this board alone....you see more
people jumping not waiting..
A lot has to do with individual circumstances, that is why some cannot wait (babies coming, getting married, just need more space, etc.). There are some that I personally know of that are waiting. I think a lot of the "speculators" (people who buy to flip homes, or rental properties) are leaving the market that is why I said some are waiting. Speculators always look at where rates are, what the fed is doing, etc. Most first time home buyers are not as crazy with the stats on that stuff.
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| Posted 4/24/06 7:02 PM |
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Redhead
You Live, You Learn
Member since 5/05 31871 total posts
Name:
Jennifer
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
well....either way i hope you are right...
MAMA NEED A HOME ASAP 
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| Posted 4/24/06 7:06 PM |
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dandr10199
Grace is growing up too fast!
Member since 10/05 11561 total posts
Name:
Dina
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Re: Is Long Island Next?
Posted by Redhead
well....either way i hope you are right...
MAMA NEED A HOME ASAP
 You will get one soon, I just know it. 
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| Posted 4/24/06 7:11 PM |
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