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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by sasha
Posted by Beth1210
pretty much everything that is happening now my DH has been saying for the last year
I remember a certain banned posted saying some pretty harsh things to me on LIW - when I said that my DH predicted a market slow down and prices to drop starting this summer
I also remember him saying some pretty horrendous things about Texas...and how "no one wants to live in Texas"...well, it looks a heck of a lot better than LI! 
Rank: #42
Market: Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
Risk of Price Decline: 7%
IMAGE
Rank: #45
Market: San Antonio, Texas
Risk of Price Decline: 6%
IMAGE
 I remember that- wow- he had alot of great adivce
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Posted 6/29/06 11:31 AM  |
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Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate
Long Island's Largest Bridal Resource | Long Island Weddings |
lululu
LIF Adult
Member since 7/05 9511 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Beth1210
Posted by Ang-Rich
Posted by lululu
However, i also think that a lot of these articles are misleading. All this is saying is that the chance that prices drop in this area is 59%. So, more than likely prices will drop. That's not really such a great prediction considering the inventory levels of houses here right now. But more specifically, it doesn't indicate HOW MUCH it will potentially drop. If it drops 5% I dont think that many people will be too hurt by that. If the article were saying there is a 90% chance that the market will decline 25%, I could see reason for concern. I think that articles like this actually make people more speculative than they need to be and cause panic. Which, keep in mind, is something that the media thrives on.
I agree 100%! I firmly believe that while LI/NYS will see a decrease, the possibility of getting anywhere near the 59% or so that is predicted will not be a reality. There are so many other factors that set this area apart from others. In addition, these articles continue to generalize for the entire country which is like comparing apples to oranges. For the most part, it's smart to acknowledge the warning and be weary - but no need to panic.
I agree- no one should panic- I don't prices will drop 59% - but a little of the gains will be given back- just like with the stock market correction of 5 years ago
I still think that people are misinterpeting the article (or maybe i am which would make more sense!) It is saying that there is a 59% chance that the market will decline. It isnt predicting a 59% decline. It doesnt say how much it would decline..... Am I misreading it though?
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| Posted 6/29/06 11:34 AM |
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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: another article buyers will like
you are correct- it's a CHANCE of decline- not decline 59%- and since things are already declining in NY- I would say there is a 100% chance
"A ranking of the 50 largest housing markets finds these areas face the highest risk of a price decline in the next two years. Count down to see the riskiest market"
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| Posted 6/29/06 11:36 AM |
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lorich
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Member since 6/05 9987 total posts
Name:
Grammie says "Lora Gina"
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Ang-Rich
I agree 100%! I firmly believe that while LI/NYS will see a decrease, the possibility of getting anywhere near the 59% or so that is predicted will not be a reality.
Ang...I think you're misreading...They're not predicting a 59% drop in prices...they're predicting the chance of prices dropping is 59%.
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| Posted 6/29/06 11:37 AM |
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lorich
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Member since 6/05 9987 total posts
Name:
Grammie says "Lora Gina"
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Re: another article buyers will like
 We all posted the same thing...
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| Posted 6/29/06 11:38 AM |
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~Colleen~
my loves...
Member since 5/05 9129 total posts
Name:
guess
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by lululu
I still think that people are misinterpeting the article (or maybe i am which would make more sense!) It is saying that there is a 59% chance that the market will decline. It isnt predicting a 59% decline. It doesnt say how much it would decline..... Am I misreading it though?
I'm reading it the same way as you. We'd be in a world of hurt if housing prices declined 59%...it makes more sense that it would read that there is a 59% chance that the market will decline. It's a cycle we've seen over and over again (hello, the late 80s??)...it's bound to happen and will bounce back again.
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| Posted 6/29/06 11:38 AM |
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MegZee
My bunny
Member since 5/06 8777 total posts
Name:
Meaghan
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Re: another article buyers will like
I completely agree with you.... what many people dont understand is that when they say there is going to be a "slowing down" or a "decline"... well most people assume its this dramatic decline... when in reality, houses are still going to appreciate in value, just not at the current rate that they were... ex: where they were increasing 12-15% a year, they may only go up 6-10% a year... either way however, your house will never lose value.
how can you never lose value on your house????
Check out what happened in the late 1980s on LI....housing prices DECLINED.
Home prices increasing isnt a guarantee....prices can go down.
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| Posted 6/29/06 11:51 AM |
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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Meaghan729
either way however, your house will never lose value.
how can you never lose value on your house????
Check out what happened in the late 1980s on LI....housing prices DECLINED.
Home prices increasing isnt a guarantee....prices can go down.
I agree with Meghan- you can lose value in your house- esp if you bought it at the peak of the market-
there is a very good chance people who bought high and need to sell in the next year or 2 will lose value- which is exactly why my DH wouldn't buy me a house in the last 2 years- he said we would be sorry since we don't plan on staying here waiting for it to rebound
people thought we were nuts- "how can you be dating/engaged to/married to a mortgage Banker and not own a home?"
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| Posted 6/29/06 11:56 AM |
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~Colleen~
my loves...
Member since 5/05 9129 total posts
Name:
guess
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Meaghan729
I completely agree with you.... what many people dont understand is that when they say there is going to be a "slowing down" or a "decline"... well most people assume its this dramatic decline... when in reality, houses are still going to appreciate in value, just not at the current rate that they were... ex: where they were increasing 12-15% a year, they may only go up 6-10% a year... either way however, your house will never lose value.
how can you never lose value on your house????
Check out what happened in the late 1980s on LI....housing prices DECLINED.
Home prices increasing isnt a guarantee....prices can go down.
The only people who lost money in the late 80s were the one's who HAD to sell. All those folks who stayed and then sold in the early 2000's...well they probably more than tripled what their house was worth back in the 80s.
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| Posted 6/29/06 11:59 AM |
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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: another article buyers will like
QUOTE]
The only people who lost money in the late 80s were the one's who HAD to sell. All those folks who stayed and then sold in the early 2000's...well they probably more than tripled what their house was worth back in the 80s.
unforseen things can happen that can force you to have to sell- esp if you are in over your head with high payments, job relocation etc
you would have to be able to ride out the decline- which not everyone can
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| Posted 6/29/06 12:01 PM |
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MegZee
My bunny
Member since 5/06 8777 total posts
Name:
Meaghan
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Colleen9304
Posted by Meaghan729
I completely agree with you.... what many people dont understand is that when they say there is going to be a "slowing down" or a "decline"... well most people assume its this dramatic decline... when in reality, houses are still going to appreciate in value, just not at the current rate that they were... ex: where they were increasing 12-15% a year, they may only go up 6-10% a year... either way however, your house will never lose value.
how can you never lose value on your house????
Check out what happened in the late 1980s on LI....housing prices DECLINED.
Home prices increasing isnt a guarantee....prices can go down.
The only people who lost money in the late 80s were the one's who HAD to sell. All those folks who stayed and then sold in the early 2000's...well they probably more than tripled what their house was worth back in the 80s.
We're not talking about people losing $$, we are talking about housing prices increasin gand decreasing. And As Beth pointed out - people have to move sometimes and cant wait a few years to do so. I just think the mentality for some people (not saying you) is that housing values can never decline...but they can.
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| Posted 6/29/06 12:03 PM |
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~Colleen~
my loves...
Member since 5/05 9129 total posts
Name:
guess
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Meaghan729
We're not talking about people losing $$, we are talking about housing prices increasin gand decreasing. And As Beth pointed out - people have to move sometimes and cant wait a few years to do so. I just think the mentality for some people (not saying you) is that housing values can never decline...but they can.
I understand what you're saying...but if your house declines and you have no intention of leaving, what's the harm when the market picks up again and puts you 2 x's ahead of the game? Disregard the "what if's" - no one can predict or plan for those...just as no one should bank on something that can't be guaranteed (that prices won't decrease).
It's a gamble, yes, but for the most part it's a wise investment. It's a cycle...if you know for fact that you're leaving in 2-5 years, there's no reason to buy up here. Especially if your rent is low and you're able to sack away a lot of cash.
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| Posted 6/29/06 12:09 PM |
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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: another article buyers will like
I understand what you're saying...but if your house declines and you have no intention of leaving, what's the harm when the market picks up again and puts you 2 x's ahead of the game?
there isn't- but your not really that ahead b/c alot of the gains are inflation and cost of living adjustments over the years
ex. my Dad bought his house 30 years ago for $50K- that was alot of money back then- and now he is selling for $585K
and he had to buy another house- in florida- a 2 bedroom condo- that needs work for $300K
so he makes a little bit - and he would make less if he had to buy here- does that make sense
you really can't look for your house to make money- it's a liability on a balance sheet for a reason
edited for typo
Message edited 6/29/2006 12:26:06 PM.
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| Posted 6/29/06 12:20 PM |
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Ang-Rich
Beyond Compare
Member since 5/05 17988 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by lorich
Posted by Ang-Rich
I agree 100%! I firmly believe that while LI/NYS will see a decrease, the possibility of getting anywhere near the 59% or so that is predicted will not be a reality.
Ang...I think you're misreading...They're not predicting a 59% drop in prices...they're predicting the chance of prices dropping is 59%.
No, I don't think I was mis-reading rather the way my message came across may not have been clear. What I was saying that they are predicting a chance of 59% but people tend to read chance to equal the % drop. So what I am saying is that considering that, people have to keep in mind that the 59% is no where near reality of what the drop will be. It's just an indicator to keep that in mind because the reality is a drop has a higher possibility of happening.
Does that make sense?
Message edited 6/29/2006 12:39:35 PM.
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| Posted 6/29/06 12:23 PM |
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lululu
LIF Adult
Member since 7/05 9511 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Beth1210
I understand what you're saying...but if your house declines and you have no intention of leaving, what's the harm when the market picks up again and puts you 2 x's ahead of the game?
there isn't- but your not really that ahead b/c alot of the gains are inflation and cost of living adjustments over the years
ex. my Dad bought his house 30 years ago for $50K- that was alot of money back then- and now he is selling for $585K
and he had to buy another house- in florida- a 2 bedroom condo- that needs work for $300K
so he makes a little bit - and he would make less if he had to buy here- does that make sense
you really can look for your house to make money- it's a liability on a balance sheet for a reason
A house is an asset and a mortgage is a liability. Also, a house is an investment, that will appreciate over time at a higher rate than inflation.
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| Posted 6/29/06 12:26 PM |
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~Colleen~
my loves...
Member since 5/05 9129 total posts
Name:
guess
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Beth1210
you really can look for your house to make money
That I totally agree with. However I think most people here purchase their home for a different kind of investment: security, not paying someone else's mortgage (via rent), roof over their head, etc. I honestly don't think there's a bad time to buy IF you've got the money and time.
I hated looking for a house 2 years ago. I refused to pay what they were asking when just 2 years prior, their house was purchased for $300k LESS. I based our house purchase on principle and am happy that we bought our house below *current* market value - makes me feel good (for now)
Message edited 6/29/2006 12:27:04 PM.
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| Posted 6/29/06 12:26 PM |
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Ang-Rich
Beyond Compare
Member since 5/05 17988 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
Chances are the homes rated with the lowest risk of decline include factors such as low demand and/or prices listed at or below market value right now. If a home is at or below market value of course that will factor in to a low risk.
Message edited 6/29/2006 12:46:22 PM.
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| Posted 6/29/06 12:32 PM |
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MegZee
My bunny
Member since 5/06 8777 total posts
Name:
Meaghan
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Re: another article buyers will like
I think main problem with home prices being overvalued is that LI is suffering a serious flight of 20-30 year olds. People my age are leaving because they can't buy a house here, but can by a brand new house somewhere else for a 1/3rd of the price.
what is going to happen when the baby boomers retire and there arent enough educated people to fill the void?
only one of my HS friends who went away to college returned to LI. everyone else saw how high houses and rent cost here and decided to stay where they were.
MY FH and I make more than the median income, yet we cant afford the median home price. My FSIL bought in 1999 and couldnt afford to buy her own home today.
Something needs to break - and its going to be housing prices, imo - mortgage rates are creeping up, there are fewer buyers than sellers, and inventories are sky high.
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| Posted 6/29/06 12:39 PM |
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MrsBlueSash
Love my sailor
Member since 6/05 5793 total posts
Name:
Christian
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Re: another article buyers will like
That was a good read. Thanks for posting it. I was particularly interested in the adj. rate bit. That always seemed iffy to me and the article reinforced that's its going to be a huge problem for a great number of people.
"Rising interest rates are even more dangerous for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages. In San Diego, where the median home price is $607,000, for example, 74% of home buyers last year took out a loan that allowed them to pay only the interest or even less, according to Loan Performance."
I also thought the bit about how this decline in sales and increase in inventory is going to flush the investors out of the market within the next year and half, all the flippers, was fascinating. Bad news for them. I wonder how many years it will be till the cycle comes around to a sellers market again?
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| Posted 6/29/06 1:01 PM |
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Sassyz75
Turning a new page
Member since 5/05 9731 total posts
Name:
Dina
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Re: another article buyers will like
I was just in Clearwater FLA and 1/2 of the waterfront properties are for sale
I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of these homes are 2nd homes with ARMs- coupled with the very high insurance b/c of hurricanes people are dumping them.
i mean, even FLA is expensive now- a double wide trailer in Mims, FLA (which is sort of red necky) on 1/6 acre is going for $160k!
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| Posted 6/29/06 1:14 PM |
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SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Beth1210
Posted by Meaghan729
either way however, your house will never lose value.
how can you never lose value on your house????
Check out what happened in the late 1980s on LI....housing prices DECLINED.
Home prices increasing isnt a guarantee....prices can go down.
I agree with Meghan- you can lose value in your house- esp if you bought it at the peak of the market-
there is a very good chance people who bought high and need to sell in the next year or 2 will lose value- which is exactly why my DH wouldn't buy me a house in the last 2 years- he said we would be sorry since we don't plan on staying here waiting for it to rebound
people thought we were nuts- "how can you be dating/engaged to/married to a mortgage Banker and not own a home?"
and that's exactly why DH and I are rethinking buying a house now. who wants to buy when houses are at peak? or even just past peak? not US!
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| Posted 6/29/06 1:29 PM |
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CkGm
They get so big, so fast :(
Member since 5/05 13848 total posts
Name:
Christine
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by lululu
Posted by Beth1210
Posted by Ang-Rich
Posted by lululu
However, i also think that a lot of these articles are misleading. All this is saying is that the chance that prices drop in this area is 59%. So, more than likely prices will drop. That's not really such a great prediction considering the inventory levels of houses here right now. But more specifically, it doesn't indicate HOW MUCH it will potentially drop. If it drops 5% I dont think that many people will be too hurt by that. If the article were saying there is a 90% chance that the market will decline 25%, I could see reason for concern. I think that articles like this actually make people more speculative than they need to be and cause panic. Which, keep in mind, is something that the media thrives on.
I agree 100%! I firmly believe that while LI/NYS will see a decrease, the possibility of getting anywhere near the 59% or so that is predicted will not be a reality. There are so many other factors that set this area apart from others. In addition, these articles continue to generalize for the entire country which is like comparing apples to oranges. For the most part, it's smart to acknowledge the warning and be weary - but no need to panic.
I agree- no one should panic- I don't prices will drop 59% - but a little of the gains will be given back- just like with the stock market correction of 5 years ago
I still think that people are misinterpeting the article (or maybe i am which would make more sense!) It is saying that there is a 59% chance that the market will decline. It isnt predicting a 59% decline. It doesnt say how much it would decline..... Am I misreading it though?
No, you aren't misreading- I was going to post this just now. It just means that in these hot markets( and I am in one) there is an over 50% chance of A decline. NOT a over a 50% decline. The decline could be 2% and will go back up again over time. Real Estate is and always will be a cyclical business.
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| Posted 6/29/06 1:33 PM |
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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Meaghan729
I think main problem with home prices being overvalued is that LI is suffering a serious flight of 20-30 year olds. People my age are leaving because they can't buy a house here, but can by a brand new house somewhere else for a 1/3rd of the price.
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5 years ago when i was in college- LI had one of the highest rates of kids staying here- not true anymore
both my Brother and Sister are gone- and we are debating- (no one left over $$- just to have a better quality of life)
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| Posted 6/29/06 1:46 PM |
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Blu-ize
Plan B is Now Plan A
Member since 7/05 32475 total posts
Name:
Susan
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Re: another article buyers will like
It's a shame we are losing our young working population. If LI had more companies that paid a decent salary where people wouldn't have to go to the city then people would stay.
The prices of homes are outrageous and many have take out adjustable rate interest only loans just to afford them.
People that take out ARMs sometimes take them out if they know they will pay it off quickly. Those loans tend to have very low interest rates and if you know you will sell a house quickly that's best loan to take.
I do believe all these articles tend to sensationalize the situation and I believe the market has cooled off, but buying real estate is still an excellent investment regardless of the cycle. If you plan on buying to live in your house, then it's an excellent buy.
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| Posted 6/29/06 2:12 PM |
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Freddie
LIF Adult
Member since 3/06 1162 total posts
Name:
Freddie
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Re: another article buyers will like
I guess I'm the only optimist here and sees the list saying that there is a 41% chance of homes in LI going up!!!
In all seriousness...it's cyclical and as long as you can wait out the cycle and have it go back up, even most people with ARMs will be fine.
Money and Fortune rated LI as going up in the next year too!
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| Posted 6/29/06 2:28 PM |
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