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sunnyplus3
:)
Member since 11/05 8749 total posts
Name:
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another article buyers will like
here's a link
highest risk markets
Look at Nassau/suffolk  
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Posted 6/28/06 8:53 PM  |
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SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
59% risk of decline? 
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| Posted 6/28/06 9:01 PM |
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maryg
LIF Infant
Member since 5/06 196 total posts
Name:
Mary
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Re: another article buyers will like
Scary...especially since I am buying now in suffolk. I hope everything will be okay....
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| Posted 6/29/06 12:14 AM |
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sunnyplus3
:)
Member since 11/05 8749 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by maryg
Scary...especially since I am buying now in suffolk. I hope everything will be okay....
Its not scary if you are buying & planning to stay. I think people that are buying now & looking to sell in the next few years or those taking big home equities lines should be careful. Everyone else will be fine.
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| Posted 6/29/06 6:25 AM |
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Ang-Rich
Beyond Compare
Member since 5/05 17988 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
"Rising interest rates are even more dangerous for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages."
This is what I think we will see the biggest hit. It's estimated that a percentage of homeowners who had those 5 year arms will not be scrambling to sell or face forclosure.
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| Posted 6/29/06 8:45 AM |
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schnapy
LIF Adolescent
Member since 9/05 766 total posts
Name:
Diana
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Ang-Rich
"Rising interest rates are even more dangerous for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages."
This is what I think we will see the biggest hit. It's estimated that a percentage of homeowners who had those 5 year arms will not be scrambling to sell or face forclosure.
They kept predicting that there will be tons of foreclosures on the market in the next couple of years for the reason you posted...
Also newsday did a whole article on how people just kept borrowing and borrowing with helocs and now they cant afford the payment
Its scary
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| Posted 6/29/06 8:53 AM |
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maryg
LIF Infant
Member since 5/06 196 total posts
Name:
Mary
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by schnapy
Posted by Ang-Rich
"Rising interest rates are even more dangerous for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages."
This is what I think we will see the biggest hit. It's estimated that a percentage of homeowners who had those 5 year arms will not be scrambling to sell or face forclosure.
They kept predicting that there will be tons of foreclosures on the market in the next couple of years for the reason you posted...
Also newsday did a whole article on how people just kept borrowing and borrowing with helocs and now they cant afford the payment
Its scary
a lot of first time home buyers or second or whatever often opt for a adjustable rate mortage or the 1st and 2nd mortgage, 2nd being an adjustable rate b/c they can't qualify to buy the house w/o it. my sil and bil for one. they tried to get a 30 year fixed but they couldn't qualify on their salary so they got a 1st and 2nd mortgage in order to qualify for the loan.
i however think pmi isn't a bad thing. especially with this to consider. and i don't know about everyone else but pmi payment will be the same every month and i like the "security" of knowing exactly how much I am paying for my mortgage every month.
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| Posted 6/29/06 9:48 AM |
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SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
I honestly don't get why anyone would ever want to lock themselves into ANY kind of adjustable rate 
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| Posted 6/29/06 9:53 AM |
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MegZee
My bunny
Member since 5/06 8777 total posts
Name:
Meaghan
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by maryg
Posted by schnapy
Posted by Ang-Rich
"Rising interest rates are even more dangerous for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages."
This is what I think we will see the biggest hit. It's estimated that a percentage of homeowners who had those 5 year arms will not be scrambling to sell or face forclosure.
They kept predicting that there will be tons of foreclosures on the market in the next couple of years for the reason you posted...
Also newsday did a whole article on how people just kept borrowing and borrowing with helocs and now they cant afford the payment
Its scary
a lot of first time home buyers or second or whatever often opt for a adjustable rate mortage or the 1st and 2nd mortgage, 2nd being an adjustable rate b/c they can't qualify to buy the house w/o it. my sil and bil for one. they tried to get a 30 year fixed but they couldn't qualify on their salary so they got a 1st and 2nd mortgage in order to qualify for the loan.
i however think pmi isn't a bad thing. especially with this to consider. and i don't know about everyone else but pmi payment will be the same every month and i like the "security" of knowing exactly how much I am paying for my mortgage every month.
alot of first time homebuyers didnt often opt for an ARM 5 years ago. They make up approx 25-30% of mortgage apps today, but five years ago the number is alot smaller (I cant find the article i read the other day on it..)
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| Posted 6/29/06 9:59 AM |
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schnapy
LIF Adolescent
Member since 9/05 766 total posts
Name:
Diana
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by maryg
Posted by schnapy
Posted by Ang-Rich
"Rising interest rates are even more dangerous for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages."
This is what I think we will see the biggest hit. It's estimated that a percentage of homeowners who had those 5 year arms will not be scrambling to sell or face forclosure.
They kept predicting that there will be tons of foreclosures on the market in the next couple of years for the reason you posted...
Also newsday did a whole article on how people just kept borrowing and borrowing with helocs and now they cant afford the payment
Its scary
a lot of first time home buyers or second or whatever often opt for a adjustable rate mortage or the 1st and 2nd mortgage, 2nd being an adjustable rate b/c they can't qualify to buy the house w/o it. my sil and bil for one. they tried to get a 30 year fixed but they couldn't qualify on their salary so they got a 1st and 2nd mortgage in order to qualify for the loan.
i however think pmi isn't a bad thing. especially with this to consider. and i don't know about everyone else but pmi payment will be the same every month and i like the "security" of knowing exactly how much I am paying for my mortgage every month.
We did that we piggy backed a loan but we locked the the rate in. We only have 2 more years to go and the loan is gone.. Wohhoooooo
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:04 AM |
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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Ang-Rich
"Rising interest rates are even more dangerous for homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages."
This is what I think we will see the biggest hit. It's estimated that a percentage of homeowners who had those 5 year arms will not be scrambling to sell or face forclosure.
my DH is in the Mortgages business and thinks/knows this is going to be a HUGE issue this year and next-
alot of people bought homes they can't afford at the peak of the market- and now they are going to be in big trouble as the rates on adjustables climb
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:08 AM |
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Ang-Rich
Beyond Compare
Member since 5/05 17988 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
I don't want it to seem like anyone who opted for the ARMS made a bad decision...at the there was reason to believe that the market would hold strong plus we all operate under the initial assumption that over the years our salaries will increase. Of course over time things change but no one can predict that.
I think that we will see a lot of people who's ARMS are coming up will try to sell - although in all fairness, I think that people have planned well and will in fact make it work. But the articles out there warning of forclosures do have merit.
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:10 AM |
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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: another article buyers will like
people with adjustables are re-fi ing again- it is actually going to be a good thing for my DH- bussiness has slowed alittle and he is redoing a lot of loans he did last year
no one could have predicted this- a guy in Jake's office told us how dumb we were for not buying a house in Long Beach ( on new years eve of this year) - he said that prices were going to keep going up and up
he was wrong - and he has been in the business for years
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:15 AM |
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~Colleen~
my loves...
Member since 5/05 9129 total posts
Name:
guess
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Beth1210
people with adjustables are re-fi ing again- it is actually going to be a good thing for my DH- bussiness has slowed alittle and he is redoing a lot of loans he did last year
no one could have predicted this- a guy in Jake's office told us how dumb we were for not buying a house in Long Beach ( on new years eve of this year) - he said that prices were going to keep going up and up
he was wrong - and he has been in the business for years
No one can predict any of this (much like the stock market or lottery numbers) or else we'd all be wealthy 
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:19 AM |
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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: another article buyers will like
pretty much everything that is happening now my DH has been saying for the last year
I remember a certain banned posted saying some pretty harsh things to me on LIW - when I said that my DH predicted a market slow down and prices to drop starting this summer
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:21 AM |
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Ang-Rich
Beyond Compare
Member since 5/05 17988 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
In all honesty - everyone should have known that the market would slow - it's just that no one knew when. The booms don't last forever - but same with the slow down...eventually things pick up again.
Message edited 6/29/2006 10:32:31 AM.
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:32 AM |
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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Ang-Rich
In all honesty - everyone should have known that the market would slow - it's just that no one knew when. The booms don't last forever - but same with the slow down...eventually things pick up again.
it's a cycle- like the stock market- and the economy in general-
what goes up- must come down-
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:34 AM |
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lululu
LIF Adult
Member since 7/05 9511 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
I dont usually like to get involved in these types of topics but these are my thoughts. I think a LOT of people predicted that the market would slow down and that there would be a market correction for a while now. People have been saying this for quite some time. It would have been IMPOSSIBLE for the market to continue to rise at the rates that it did over the past 5-7 years. No one would be able to afford a house at those rates so for anyone to think that trend would have continued, they would have to be very ignorant. I think that thinking that it would platuea or drop would be much more reasonable than to think that we would continue to have 20% gains year over year.
However, i also think that a lot of these articles are misleading. All this is saying is that the chance that prices drop in this area is 59%. So, more than likely prices will drop. That's not really such a great prediction considering the inventory levels of houses here right now. But more specifically, it doesn't indicate HOW MUCH it will potentially drop. If it drops 5% I dont think that many people will be too hurt by that. If the article were saying there is a 90% chance that the market will decline 25%, I could see reason for concern. I think that articles like this actually make people more speculative than they need to be and cause panic. Which, keep in mind, is something that the media thrives on.
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:38 AM |
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lululu
LIF Adult
Member since 7/05 9511 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Ang-Rich
In all honesty - everyone should have known that the market would slow - it's just that no one knew when. The booms don't last forever - but same with the slow down...eventually things pick up again.
Well said.
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:39 AM |
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Ang-Rich
Beyond Compare
Member since 5/05 17988 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by lululu
However, i also think that a lot of these articles are misleading. All this is saying is that the chance that prices drop in this area is 59%. So, more than likely prices will drop. That's not really such a great prediction considering the inventory levels of houses here right now. But more specifically, it doesn't indicate HOW MUCH it will potentially drop. If it drops 5% I dont think that many people will be too hurt by that. If the article were saying there is a 90% chance that the market will decline 25%, I could see reason for concern. I think that articles like this actually make people more speculative than they need to be and cause panic. Which, keep in mind, is something that the media thrives on.
I agree 100%! I firmly believe that while LI/NYS will see a decrease, the possibility of getting anywhere near the 59% or so that is predicted will not be a reality. There are so many other factors that set this area apart from others. In addition, these articles continue to generalize for the entire country which is like comparing apples to oranges. For the most part, it's smart to acknowledge the warning and be weary - but no need to panic.
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:49 AM |
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Cookiegobbler
My little love bugs!!
Member since 9/05 5759 total posts
Name:
Nicole
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by lululu
I dont usually like to get involved in these types of topics but these are my thoughts. I think a LOT of people predicted that the market would slow down and that there would be a market correction for a while now. People have been saying this for quite some time. It would have been IMPOSSIBLE for the market to continue to rise at the rates that it did over the past 5-7 years. No one would be able to afford a house at those rates so for anyone to think that trend would have continued, they would have to be very ignorant. I think that thinking that it would platuea or drop would be much more reasonable than to think that we would continue to have 20% gains year over year.
However, i also think that a lot of these articles are misleading. All this is saying is that the chance that prices drop in this area is 59%. So, more than likely prices will drop. That's not really such a great prediction considering the inventory levels of houses here right now. But more specifically, it doesn't indicate HOW MUCH it will potentially drop. If it drops 5% I dont think that many people will be too hurt by that. If the article were saying there is a 90% chance that the market will decline 25%, I could see reason for concern. I think that articles like this actually make people more speculative than they need to be and cause panic. Which, keep in mind, is something that the media thrives on.
I completely agree with you.... what many people dont understand is that when they say there is going to be a "slowing down" or a "decline"... well most people assume its this dramatic decline... when in reality, houses are still going to appreciate in value, just not at the current rate that they were... ex: where they were increasing 12-15% a year, they may only go up 6-10% a year... either way however, your house will never lose value.
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:55 AM |
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Beth
The Key to your new home....
Member since 2/06 24849 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Ang-Rich
Posted by lululu
However, i also think that a lot of these articles are misleading. All this is saying is that the chance that prices drop in this area is 59%. So, more than likely prices will drop. That's not really such a great prediction considering the inventory levels of houses here right now. But more specifically, it doesn't indicate HOW MUCH it will potentially drop. If it drops 5% I dont think that many people will be too hurt by that. If the article were saying there is a 90% chance that the market will decline 25%, I could see reason for concern. I think that articles like this actually make people more speculative than they need to be and cause panic. Which, keep in mind, is something that the media thrives on.
I agree 100%! I firmly believe that while LI/NYS will see a decrease, the possibility of getting anywhere near the 59% or so that is predicted will not be a reality. There are so many other factors that set this area apart from others. In addition, these articles continue to generalize for the entire country which is like comparing apples to oranges. For the most part, it's smart to acknowledge the warning and be weary - but no need to panic.
I agree- no one should panic- I don't prices will drop 59% - but a little of the gains will be given back- just like with the stock market correction of 5 years ago
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| Posted 6/29/06 10:56 AM |
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Eva Luna
Be kind...life's hard!
Member since 8/05 4750 total posts
Name:
God, bless & heal my DH, JenG's DH Rob & DebG
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Beth1210
pretty much everything that is happening now my DH has been saying for the last year
I remember a certain banned posted saying some pretty harsh things to me on LIW - when I said that my DH predicted a market slow down and prices to drop starting this summer
I also remember him saying some pretty horrendous things about Texas...and how "no one wants to live in Texas"...well, it looks a heck of a lot better than LI! 
Rank: #42
Market: Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
Risk of Price Decline: 7%
Rank: #45
Market: San Antonio, Texas
Risk of Price Decline: 6%
This is the whole list! 
Housing market: Risky business?
As housing prices rise at a record-setting pace, the risk of a price decline in hot markets is rising. The chance of a price decline in the next two years for the 50 largest housing markets in the U.S., according to PMI Mortgage Insurance:
Rank City Risk index
1 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, Calif. 59.9%
2 Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. 58.9%
3 Boston-Quincy, Mass. 58.8%
4 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, Calif. 58.8%
5 Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, Calif. 58.5%
6 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 58.3%
7 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, Calif. 58.2%
8 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif. 57.5%
9 Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, R.I.-Mass. 56.8%
10 San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, Calif. 56.0%
11 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. 55.9%
12 Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, Mass. 53.7%
13 Edison, N.J. 53.6%
14 New York-Wayne-White Plains, N.Y.-N.J. 49.8%
15 Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. 48.1%
16 Newark-Union, N.J.-Pa. 45.9%
17 Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla. 44.1%
18 Washington -Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md. 43.1%
19 Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla. 35.9%
20 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis. 35.5%
21 Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich. 33.7%
22 Baltimore-Towson, Md. 30.7%
23 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. 29.4%
24 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C. 18.4%
25 Warren-Farmington Hills-Troy, Mich. 17.9%
26 Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla. 17.5%
27 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. 16.5%
28 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. 15.3%
29 Denver-Aurora, Col. 13.0%
30 Philadelphia, Pa. 12.7%
31 Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill. 11.2%
32 St. Louis, Mo.-Ill. 10.9%
33 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, Wash. 10.8%
34 Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, Ore.-Wash. 10.8%
35 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. 10.1%
36 Kansas City, Mo.-Kan. 9.3%
37 Austin-Round Rock-Texas 8.7%
38 Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C.-S.C. 8.3%
39 Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, Texas 8.0%
40 Dallas-Plano-Irving, Texas 7.1%
41 Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, Tenn. 6.9%
42 Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 6.8%
43 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, Ohio 6.5%
44 Columbus, Ohio 6.5%
45 San Antonio, Texas 6.4%
46 Cincinnati-Middletown, Ohio-Ky.-Ind. 6.1%
47 Memphis, Tenn. 5.8%
48 Indianapolis, Ind. 5.7%
49 Pittsburgh, Pa. 5.7%
50 New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA. NA1
Average 27.8%
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| Posted 6/29/06 11:18 AM |
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SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by Ang-Rich
I don't want it to seem like anyone who opted for the ARMS made a bad decision...at the there was reason to believe that the market would hold strong plus we all operate under the initial assumption that over the years our salaries will increase. Of course over time things change but no one can predict that.
I think that we will see a lot of people who's ARMS are coming up will try to sell - although in all fairness, I think that people have planned well and will in fact make it work. But the articles out there warning of forclosures do have merit.
ARM's are definitely not a bad decision, but you can get one with a fixed rate. I honestly don't get why anyone would risk an adjustable interest rate.
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| Posted 6/29/06 11:24 AM |
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Eva Luna
Be kind...life's hard!
Member since 8/05 4750 total posts
Name:
God, bless & heal my DH, JenG's DH Rob & DebG
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Re: another article buyers will like
Posted by SweetestOfPeas
Posted by Ang-Rich
I don't want it to seem like anyone who opted for the ARMS made a bad decision...at the there was reason to believe that the market would hold strong plus we all operate under the initial assumption that over the years our salaries will increase. Of course over time things change but no one can predict that.
I think that we will see a lot of people who's ARMS are coming up will try to sell - although in all fairness, I think that people have planned well and will in fact make it work. But the articles out there warning of forclosures do have merit.
ARM's are definitely not a bad decision, but you can get one with a fixed rate. I honestly don't get why anyone would risk an adjustable interest rate.
ARM's are not for everyone...but they work great for some. My sister and her DH have jobs where they paid at irregular intervals for large amounts, so ARM's work for them. And yes, as SoP said, you can have them not be adjustable.
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| Posted 6/29/06 11:30 AM |
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