STORM COMING!!!!!! (NOW WITH RADAR!!!)

Original post from Sunday morning:

A storm is coming for the tri-state area Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now the biggest impact looks to be later Tues into early Wed.

How much snow Kelly?

If this storm gets close to us, things don't look good. If we can blow it more out to sea, then things wont be so bad.

Can I become a weather person, since they always seem to be wrong? I hear the forecast 3 days in advance and don't understand why I need to 'stay tuned'.

Bite me. It is all about understanding what is happening. Especially with winter storms, the track means everything as to how much snow is coming. The change of the storm track of 50 miles (even 20-30 miles) can mean a crapload of change. Didn't everybody assume the Saints would beat the Seahawks yesterday? Is anybody saying how much sportscasters suck with their predictions?

Here is a video I made for you to understand more about winter storms. Forgive my voice and crappy nails. I am utterly exhausted with what has been happening with my son over the past week and I chew my nails now. I really think this video can explain a lot. (Grab some coffee as I babble for 8 minutes, but you will understand why, I hope.)

Winter storm explanation from Kelly

I will be back as things become more clear in the next day or so. But here are the links to look at for your snowfall totals as we get closer. (These will be better to look at early Monday because they only go 48 hours in advance.) I hope to update these over the next day or so.


-----------------------------------------------------
Sunday night update:

Looks more and more likely this storm is going to hit hard. I will try to keep you updated, but my son is more important. If his temp keeps rising we will be heading back to the hospital. So please don't b!tch if I can't hold your hand through the next few days. And forgive my typos and run-on sentences.

By tomorrow morning (Monday) the above links to snowfall totals should be up and running. If not, I will try to redo the links.

Here is what is known right now:

"A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH MAY ALSO DEVELOP... WITH NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...IF THE
STORM DEEPENS TO THE EXTENT THAT SOME OF THE PROJECTIONS INDICATE."

There is a shot that the storm will come so close that some of the warm air will be close enough to our region and fall as rain during some parts of the storm, thus producing lower snowfall amounts. This will become more clear in the next 24 hours.





--------------------------------------------------------
Monday morning:
My son is doing alright. Thanks for your well wishes! I will try to keep up wit the weather today, but can't guarantee.

--------------------------------------------------------
Monday afternoon:

Not much of a change to the forecast. I just wanted to add another weather graphic for you. Once you click on the link there will be a box to find the closest town they have to your town. Just click on the nearest town and submit. Little graphs come up that tell you the chance of precipitation, type of precipitation, wind speed, etc for each hour over the next few days.

As of right now, Montauk appears they may be warming just before dawn on Wednesday and will have a changeover to rain for a few hours. And Riverhead is supposed to remain all snow. But this can all change, so keep checking on this link. The best chance of a warmer change to rain is over the twin forks. But you never know what a tiny track change can do.

Here is the link. Please ask me any questions you have.
--------------------------------------------------------
Later update Monday afternoon:

"LOW TRACKING NE FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO OVER OR
JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK WHICH HAS LED TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS THE AREA."

And you all thought I was blowing smoke up your a$$ with my video explanation.



"WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM...THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSNOW"

Who is going to get video of this?!?!?

"STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 11 INCHES IN NE NJ...THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC WHILE 10 TO 15 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS LI
AND SOUTHERN CT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW
BANDS.......THERE COULD BE SOME MIX OF PRECIP ON THE
EAST END OF LONG ISLAND...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS AT
THIS TIME."

Snow is supposed to start Tuesday evening. (So if I hear any of you b!tching tomorrow that you aren't seeing snow and the weather people are stupid, I will personaly hunt you down.)

"SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE WED MORNING...THEN
STARTS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E DURING WED AFTN."

This means the worst of the storm will be hitting while most people are sleeping Tuesday night into Wednesday. You will wake up and say 'ah crap', she was right.

-----------------------------------------------------

Tues morning:
Forecast looks right on track. If some of the computer models are right, LI could see 2 feet of snow. SOme areas may be in bands, with snowfall rates of 2 inches of snow per hour.

Fun times.





--------------------------------------------------------
Tues night:

Flurries have begun on the south shore.

Updated with links to radar:

**********YOU MAY HAVE TO HIT REFRESH WHEN YOU CLICK ON THESE, NOT SURE*********

Northeast radar

Radar of NYC, Long Island and surrounding areas

Message edited 1/11/2011 7:25:29 PM.

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

that was actually a really excellent explanation. Thank you weatherlady Kelly!!!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

how great are you?!!
I loved your video. I learned a lot!!
I know what to look for about the mountains and 40 70 mark!!
thanks for sharing!
I also watched the movie of your son dancing. how cuuuuuuute. cant wait for dd to dance.

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

I think I met you once at a GTG but not really "met." But I wish I had, YOU ROCK

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

You are AWESOME!!!

Thank you so much for taking the time to make at video, especially with DS's recovery

I learned a lot!! When someone asks me about the weather and any impending snow I'm going to look right at them and say, "Don't you know it's all about the 40/70?"

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Thanks!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Great explanation and video! Thanks!

Next time my dad is complaining NON-STOP about the weather people not knowing what the heck they are doing, I can explain this to him and maybe shut him up a bit lol

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Awesome! Thanks so much for sharing that!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

you rock! thank you!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

I check here now instead of weather.com or all the others These posts have become my main source of weather info!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Can I PLEASE have your baby now??? Thanks Kelly!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Posted by PennyCat

I check here now instead of weather.com or all the others These posts have become my main source of weather info!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

you're awesome, thanks for the video!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

thank you Kelly!!!! youre awesome!!!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

great video and explanation. and don't worry - my nails are horrific compared to yours.
my DH wants to know where your accent is from...

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

OMG -- that was awesome! You're going to make meteorologists out of all of us!

Thank you!!!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

you are friggin amazing!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Fantastic!!! Thanks, Kelly!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Thank you!!!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Thank you! That was fabulous!!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Ok, there is no way you grew up on Long Island

Upstate/WNY accent?

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Thank you, that was so interesting!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

I agree with Lisa. You grew up somewhere else..

Oh and thank you!!!

Re: Storm coming this Tuesday into Wednesday (with video to fully explain)

Wow, this is so informative!!! Thank you so much!!