My interpretation of the storm (Update Wed morning)

I was going to give you my interpretation in the form of an interpretive dance. But then I realized you can't see me. It's for the best. It would've looked a bit like Chris Farley trying out to be a Chippendale. But in my mind I looked like Patrick Swayze.

Anyway........
This storm is going to hit us. How hard? Pretty hard. The track of the storm is still a bit uncertain, but that is basically the difference between 6-12 inches and 18-24 inches. Either way, not so fun.

Some areas may see some flakes begin to fall Tuesday night, but most will wait until after midnight to really notice.

One main reason for holding down on the snow totals is the CHANCE that Wednesday morning we (NYC/LI) could get into a warm area of the storm, thus shifting the snow to mixed precipitation for a brief period. This will make for a tricky morning commute.

If you do go into work on Wednesday, then you may have a shot at an early dismissal. Wednesday's snow will really start to get heavy during the day, making for a tough evening commute.

Right now I am staying with my thought of 8-12 inches. Some areas could see much, much more. I will update as needed. If we change to a Winter Storm Warning, then life will get real interesting. That Warning should include how much snow is expected.

It will also be dang windy. So hold onto your sparkly pasties.

This could also mean that a Blizzard Warning may come. That just means blowing snow and white-out conditions. A Blizzard Warning doesn't necessarily mean a lot of snow. Just means snow and wind. The Winter Storm Warning is the one to cry over.

Click here to see updated forecasted storm totals. These totals are ONLY for the area shaded. If you live outside these areas, then you are in a different forecast zone.:
Click on this link, then click on the blue toolbar near the middle of the page that says 'Storm Total Forecast'

Here are the predicted storm totals for most of NJ (out of the NYC forecast zone.):
NJ totals

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Update Tuesday morning:
All of our area is now under Winter Storm Warning. I stand by what I say up above. Some snow will fall tonight through the overnight (possibly mixed precip toward morning), but the bulk of the snow will be on Wednesday.

Keep an eye on those storm total maps that I posted above during the day. Right now the snow totals are lower on the coast of NJ and the Eastern end of Long Island. That is because these are the areas expecting to have a few hours of mixed precipitation. (Although, any area could see it, but these areas have the best shot of seeing it at length.) If you see those coastal snow totals increasing, then it means we have less chance of mixed precip.

I don't know about you, but I'd rather see a foot of snow than 8 inches of snow and quarter inch of ice. But that's just me.

My purpose is to educate the public on how to understand these storms and understand their predictability. This way you can understand things better and b!tch less.

Not sure if I can update during the day today, but I will try to get back on tonight.

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Update Tuesday afternoon:
I have nothing more to add, just wanted to say hi!

Well, most of the totals have increased a few inches over the past few hours. But I am sure you figured that out by looking at the cool links I gave you.
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Update Wed morning:
Same as above. Very good shot at mixed precipitation over the next few hours. (Especially Long Island.) This will keep some snow totals down a bit. But what the hell is the difference between 8 inches or 12 inches? (No need to tell me the difference is 4 inches. )

Stay safe today. Things get bad this afternoon and the winds will also pick up.

Hmmm. Interesting how the forecast really hasn't changed over the past few days isn't it? Yet, the complaining has already begun. Can't win.

Message edited 2/10/2010 7:58:37 AM.

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Wow I just went through a rollercoaster of emotions
Thank you Kelly, you are really earning your $$$$ this week!!!

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Ugh. The last time it started snowing during the day it took me like 6 hours to get home from work.

I really hope they close school Wednesday.

Re: My interpretation of the storm

you rock!!

here is a snow joke to make you laugh (or roll your eyes, lol)



"How is snow white? "
(wait for it, wait for it....)
"Pretty good, according to the 7 dwarfs!"

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Posted by rileysmama

you rock!!

here is a snow joke to make you laugh (or roll your eyes, lol)



"How is snow white? "
(wait for it, wait for it....)
"Pretty good, according to the 7 dwarfs!"

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Kelly... love your forecast! You crack me up!

I only care not to lose electricity!

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Thanks, I love your updates.

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Kel,

If you could push this back for Wednesday to Thursday that would be great...

Thanks.....

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Posted by hbugal

Kel,

If you could push this back for Wednesday to Thursday that would be great...

Thanks.....

Re: My interpretation of the storm

I think I really want a giant snow. At least I won't freeze my butt off for nothing.

Kelly, sorry I missed the interpretative dance.

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Posted by waterspout4

Posted by hbugal

Kel,

If you could push this back for Wednesday to Thursday that would be great...

Thanks.....

No can do.

You think I'm Mother Nature or something?

Re: My interpretation of the storm

It will also be dang windy. So hold onto your sparkly pasties.

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Message edited 2/8/2010 9:51:06 PM.

Re: My interpretation of the storm

I feel like I've seen this interpretative dance before somewhere...ummmm, maybe at Once Upon a Treetop or Venetian

As of now what do you expect by Wed. am (commute time?)

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Thank you Kelly! Mike Woods who?

Re: My interpretation of the storm

I was waiting for this..Thank you!

DH enjoys what you haveto say too, he feels you're more accurate than most

Actually he came home from work before and said "Hey, can you go online and ask that girl from that site about the weather"

In those words too

He hopes your right cause this would be great OT for him!!

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Posted by SweetCin

I feel like I've seen this interpretative dance before somewhere...ummmm, maybe at Once Upon a Treetop or Venetian

As of now what do you expect by Wed. am (commute time?)

Re: My interpretation of the storm

wow! I was helping a partner prepare for an argument Thurs morning OOS and she was planning to fly out Wed... she's planning to call the judge tomorrow about possibly rescheduling because she doesn't think her flight will make it there.

(If the argument is pushed back I am going to try to work from home Wed if we get a lot of snow!)

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Thank You Kelly! So, really, I should tell DH to work from home?
He'll get TO work, but, getting home will be a beyotch huh?

Re: My interpretation of the storm

kelly, you are awesome!

according to the link, i can expect 10-18 inches (just south of princeton, nj)

btw, the dance that you danced (in my head) was amazing!

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Posted by lvdolphins

Thank You Kelly! So, really, I should tell DH to work from home?
He'll get TO work, but, getting home will be a beyotch huh?

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Posted by Jackie24

Thank you Kelly! Mike Woods who?

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Posted by libby2595



btw, the dance that you danced (in my head) was amazing!

Re: My interpretation of the storm

Posted by waterspout4

Posted by SweetCin

I feel like I've seen this interpretative dance before somewhere...ummmm, maybe at Once Upon a Treetop or Venetian

As of now what do you expect by Wed. am (commute time?)

Not enough to cancel school.

Re: My interpretation of the storm

I wanna see the dance