GoldenRod
10 years on LIF!
Member since 11/06 26792 total posts
Name:
Shawn
|
Congressional Budget Office's estimate of repealing ACA
These are the estimated effects based on H.R. 3762, the Restoring Americans’ Healthcare Freedom Reconciliation Act, as passed by the Senate on December 3, 2015.
That's the closest plan that the GOP has put forward to replace the ACA.
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/reports/52371-coverageandpremiums.pdf
The number of people who are uninsured would
increase by 18 million in the first new plan year
following enactment of the bill. Later, after the
elimination of the ACA’s expansion of Medicaid
eligibility and of subsidies for insurance purchased through the ACA marketplaces, that number would increase to 27 million, and then to 32 million in 2026.
Premiums in the nongroup market (for individual policies purchased through the marketplaces or directly from insurers) would increase by 20 percent to 25 percent—relative to projections under current law—in the first new plan year following enactment.
The increase would reach about 50 percent in the year following the elimination of the Medicaid expansion and the marketplace subsidies, and premiums would about double by 2026.
Estimated Changes After the Elimination of the
Medicaid Expansion and Subsidies
The bill’s effects on insurance coverage and premiums would be greater once the repeal of the Medicaid expansion and the subsidies for insurance purchased through the marketplaces took effect, roughly two years after enactment.
Effects on Insurance Coverage. By CBO and JCT’s estimates, enacting H.R. 3762 would increase the number of people without health insurance coverage by about 27 million in the year following the elimination of the Medicaid expansion and marketplace subsidies and by
32 million in 2026, relative to the number of uninsured people expected under current law. (The number of people without health insurance would be smaller if, in addition to the changes in H.R. 3762, the insurance market reforms mentioned above were also repealed. In that case, the increase in the number of uninsured people would be about 21 million in the year following the elimination of the Medicaid expansion and marketplace subsidies; that
figure would rise to about 23 million in 2026.)
The estimated increase of 32 million people without coverage in 2026 is the net result of roughly 23 million fewer with coverage in the nongroup market and 19 million fewer with coverage under Medicaid, partially offset by
an increase of about 11 million people covered by employment-based insurance. By CBO and JCT’s estimates, 59 million people under age 65 would be uninsured in 2026 (compared with 28 million under current law), representing 21 percent of people under age 65.
Effects on Premiums. In total, as a result of reduced enrollment, higher average health care costs among remaining enrollees, and lower participation by insurers, CBO and JCT project that premiums in the nongroup market would be about 50 percent higher in the first year after the marketplace subsidies were eliminated—relative
to projections under current law—and would about double by 2026.
...
Since we don't know exactly what the "covered beautifully" plan is, this is the most recent "plan" that the GOP has put forward, and actually started to pass. It's not that far of a stretch to think that much of this would be in the upcoming plan, since this plan might have passed if Congress and the WH was Republican controlled in 2015.
The GOP is so hell-bent on repealing the ACA, they don't appear to even want to think about just fixing the broken parts of it. If they would just fix the bad parts (and rename it, so they get all the credit), I think the public would be pretty happy. Repealing without a viable replacement will be devastating....
I really hope that facts and figures like these, and constituents up in arms will make the GOP stop for a while and actually think about what they are going to do. If they purely go by their ego, and go full bore at repealing anything that Obama put in place, they will bring all of us down. If they go about it the right way, and keep the good parts of the ACA, and fix the bad parts, they can actually be commended for doing something good.
|
Pumpkin1
LIF Adult
Member since 12/05 3715 total posts
Name:
|
Congressional Budget Office's estimate of repealing ACA
I can't wrap my head around this: in 2016, 7.5 million people paid the fine (an average of $200) instead of buying insurance with the IRS collecting about $1.5 billion in fines and the majority of those people who paid the fine received a tax refund anyhow.
So, the GOP government wants to leave 20 million people without healthcare and incur billions of dollars in the process to protect this group of people? Is that right?
Message edited 1/17/2017 2:54:06 PM.
|
