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CookiePuss
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Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
It was a news item this morning where the reporter was talking about overseas markets, corporate earnings and forecasts, layoffs, foreclosures up from last year at this time and how it looks like we are heading in to a recession. Does anyone not believe that it has already begun? Is it any surprise that jobs are getting cut at Goldman? Or am I the only one that really believes that we are already in a recession?
Sometimes I think the news makes things worse with their interpretation.
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Posted 10/23/08 8:16 AM  |
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Long Island Weddings
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GioiaMia
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
There is an actual technical definition of a recession and of a depression. I heard them on NPR yesterday but please don't ask me what they are. LOL So, according to those definitions maybe we are not in a recession yet and that is what they are referring to?
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| Posted 10/23/08 8:31 AM |
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CookiePuss
Cake from Outer Space!
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by Tilde
There is an actual technical definition of a recession and of a depression. I heard them on NPR yesterday but please don't ask me what they are. LOL So, according to those definitions maybe we are not in a recession yet and that is what they are referring to?
It is usually based on GDP numbers but I do feel that the 3rd quarter will be revised as well as the 4th, when we are finished, and will show a recession starting in 3rd quarter of 2008.
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| Posted 10/23/08 8:34 AM |
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heathergirl
Cocktail Time!
Member since 10/08 4978 total posts
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American mouth
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Everyone I know pretty much believes we're in a recession. The job market is declining, the stock market is dropping, the foreclosure rate is high, etc...Whether we fall into the textbook definition is another story,
My dad told me an old joke my Great-Grandpa told him (he lived duing the Depression): A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job.
A standard, but somewhat outdated, definition of a recession is that the GDP declines for 2 consecutive quarters. A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10%. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe.
The last depression in the United States was from May 1937 to June 1938, where real GDP declined by 18.2 percent. If we use this method then the Great Depression of the 1930s can be seen as two separate events: an incredibly severe depression lasting from August 1929 to March 1933 where real GDP declined by almost 33 percent, a period of recovery, then another less severe depression of 1937-38. The worst recession in the last 60 years was from November 1973 to March 1975, where real GDP fell by 4.9 percent. In 2007, the US had the sixth highest GDP in the world.
Hope this helps!
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| Posted 10/23/08 8:46 AM |
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MsMBV
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
I think we are 9 mos past recession and into depression. JMHO.
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| Posted 10/23/08 8:49 AM |
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CookiePuss
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by MsMBV
I think we are 9 mos past recession and into depression. JMHO.
I don't think we have seen the worst of it, unfortunately. 
I was just talking to DH and telling him when the job market looks a little better, I'm going to look to change careers because I can't go through another bubble burst and implosion. This is the 2nd time in 10 years that I had to deal with this mess and I'm tired.
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| Posted 10/23/08 8:54 AM |
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heathergirl
Cocktail Time!
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American mouth
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by MsMBV
I think we are 9 mos past recession and into depression. JMHO.
The state of the economy is depressing, but we are not YET in a depression. There are economic standards that have not yet been met that qualify as a depression. As I stated above, we are in a severe economic downturn, but it is not a depression.
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| Posted 10/23/08 8:55 AM |
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HeathKernandez
Our Ron is an awesome Ron
Member since 4/07 9091 total posts
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baby fish mouth
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
I don't think we're in a recession OR a depression...
Sure, times are a little rough, but DH & I are able to get by and we don't make a lot of $ to begin with...
I just think people aren't used to budgeting themselves and calling it a recession..
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| Posted 10/23/08 9:18 AM |
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MsMBV
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Me
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by heathergirl
Posted by MsMBV
I think we are 9 mos past recession and into depression. JMHO.
The state of the economy is depressing, but we are not YET in a depression. There are economic standards that have not yet been met that qualify as a depression. As I stated above, we are in a severe economic downturn, but it is not a depression.
OK fair enough. I am just down b/c DH is in automotive and the numbers are looking bleak. I keep having flashbacks of "Roger and Me" in my head
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| Posted 10/23/08 9:19 AM |
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heathergirl
Cocktail Time!
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American mouth
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by KeithHernandez
I don't think we're in a recession OR a depression...
Sure, times are a little rough, but DH & I are able to get by and we don't make a lot of $ to begin with...
I just think people aren't used to budgeting themselves and calling it a recession..
ITA. The economy is in the $hitter right now, but technically, we're not in either a recession or a depression. People panic and aren't used to budgeting, etc. Americans have lived high on the hog for the last 50 years or so, it was bound to go downhill at some point.
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| Posted 10/23/08 9:20 AM |
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heathergirl
Cocktail Time!
Member since 10/08 4978 total posts
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American mouth
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by MsMBV
Posted by heathergirl
Posted by MsMBV
I think we are 9 mos past recession and into depression. JMHO.
The state of the economy is depressing, but we are not YET in a depression. There are economic standards that have not yet been met that qualify as a depression. As I stated above, we are in a severe economic downturn, but it is not a depression.
OK fair enough. I am just down b/c DH is in automotive and the numbers are looking bleak. I keep having flashbacks of "Roger and Me" in my head
I'm sorry  Without a doubt it's a serious situation that is affecting everyone It is so discouraging. I hope things turn around soon, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't. I wish there were more resources, more things the gov't could do, but I guess it's not that easy. I pray that the new President can make the necessary changes we need 
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| Posted 10/23/08 9:24 AM |
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CookiePuss
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Member since 5/05 14021 total posts
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by heathergirl
Posted by KeithHernandez
I don't think we're in a recession OR a depression...
Sure, times are a little rough, but DH & I are able to get by and we don't make a lot of $ to begin with...
I just think people aren't used to budgeting themselves and calling it a recession..
ITA. The economy is in the $hitter right now, but technically, we're not in either a recession or a depression. People panic and aren't used to budgeting, etc. Americans have lived high on the hog for the last 50 years or so, it was bound to go downhill at some point.
Do you believe that the GDP numbers for the 3rd quarter won't be revised down? Unfortunately, I do believe that they will be along with 4th quarter numbers. I really think GDP tends to be a lagging indicator.
What also concerns me is this is the first time that the Euro has been tested since being introduced as a common currency.
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| Posted 10/23/08 9:25 AM |
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CookiePuss
Cake from Outer Space!
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by KeithHernandez
I don't think we're in a recession OR a depression...
Sure, times are a little rough, but DH & I are able to get by and we don't make a lot of $ to begin with...
I just think people aren't used to budgeting themselves and calling it a recession..
I would love to think this but the economic forecasts for global growth rate is about 2.4% which is satisfies the usual definition of a global recession.
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| Posted 10/23/08 9:27 AM |
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usuk2004
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Farah
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by shamrock124
Sometimes I think the news makes things worse with their interpretation.
I definitely do think the media and public perception have a huge impact on the economy. It's a bit chicken and egg. Media reports economic downturn. People panic and withdraw their money from circulation. Media reports, etc.
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| Posted 10/23/08 10:23 AM |
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MsMBV
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Me
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by heathergirl
I'm sorry Without a doubt it's a serious situation that is affecting everyone It is so discouraging. I hope things turn around soon, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't. I wish there were more resources, more things the gov't could do, but I guess it's not that easy. I pray that the new President can make the necessary changes we need
from your lips...... 
I do think that continuing to allow the economy and certain markets to artifically inflate for so long HAD to have this as the outcome.
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| Posted 10/23/08 10:36 AM |
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heathergirl
Cocktail Time!
Member since 10/08 4978 total posts
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American mouth
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by MsMBV
Posted by heathergirl
I'm sorry Without a doubt it's a serious situation that is affecting everyone It is so discouraging. I hope things turn around soon, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't. I wish there were more resources, more things the gov't could do, but I guess it's not that easy. I pray that the new President can make the necessary changes we need
from your lips......
I do think that continuing to allow the economy and certain markets to artifically inflate for so long HAD to have this as the outcome.
I agree. The history of bloated economic strategies and inflated global markets have definitely contributed to our current economic state. Sure, I benefited from our economy/society as much as the next person, but when it comes time to buckle down, it seems like we're alone
People still spending like crazy, living beyond their means, trying to keep up with the Joneses...that mentality has had a huge impact on LI. How many people do I know who bought houses they couldn't afford with subprime mortgages, bought cars and trucks with 15% interest, maxed out CC's to go on vacations...It boggled me how they could afford to have those things when we live decently but still struggle every once in a while. Now I know how they could do it.
And it makes me want to vomit, honestly, when I read these new articles about the GOP spending $150k on Palin's wardrobe (which, for that amount of $$, I think she could look a helluva lot better  ) and all the money being spent on these campaigns, when unemployment is rising, banks are collapsing, the Dow is down, and everything else going on 
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| Posted 10/23/08 11:05 AM |
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Bxgell2
Perfection
Member since 5/05 16438 total posts
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Beth
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
I agree with others that our perception is WAY off. Many of us have been living the high life for the past 10 years, not saving, budgeting, and living beyond our means during the housing bubble.
Now things are getting back into balance - it certainly FEELS like a recession, maybe even a depression by comparison to the last 10 years, but I don't necessarily think it is. I think it's just the market readjusting itself back to normal.
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| Posted 10/23/08 11:25 AM |
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jellybean78
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Mommy
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by Bxgell2
I agree with others that our perception is WAY off. Many of us have been living the high life for the past 10 years, not saving, budgeting, and living beyond our means during the housing bubble.
Now things are getting back into balance - it certainly FEELS like a recession, maybe even a depression by comparison to the last 10 years, but I don't necessarily think it is. I think it's just the market readjusting itself back to normal.
ITA. I think everything is starting to "correct" itself. People have been living like rock stars without a cashflow to fund it (i.e. using credit cards, credit etc) so yes to these people it's going to feel like a recession because they are cutting/eliminating credit limits, credit is no longer easy to come by and peoples overinflated house values can no longer be used as banks to fund a lifestyle they couldn't afford anyway. I think these are the people that will be hit the hardest.
Unfortunatley there are those that did the "right" thing and will lose their jobs anyway because of greedy companies/individuals but for the most part I think if you lived within your means before you should be OK given that your job is secure.
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| Posted 10/23/08 11:29 AM |
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CookiePuss
Cake from Outer Space!
Member since 5/05 14021 total posts
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by Bxgell2
I agree with others that our perception is WAY off. Many of us have been living the high life for the past 10 years, not saving, budgeting, and living beyond our means during the housing bubble.
Now things are getting back into balance - it certainly FEELS like a recession, maybe even a depression by comparison to the last 10 years, but I don't necessarily think it is. I think it's just the market readjusting itself back to normal.
I hope you're right but economic forecasts are not predicting that, that is the case. They are predicting a global recession.
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| Posted 10/23/08 11:38 AM |
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Bxgell2
Perfection
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Name:
Beth
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by shamrock124
Posted by Bxgell2
I agree with others that our perception is WAY off. Many of us have been living the high life for the past 10 years, not saving, budgeting, and living beyond our means during the housing bubble.
Now things are getting back into balance - it certainly FEELS like a recession, maybe even a depression by comparison to the last 10 years, but I don't necessarily think it is. I think it's just the market readjusting itself back to normal.
I hope you're right but economic forecasts are not predicting that, that is the case. They are predicting a global recession.
I'm not saying we aren't heading into one, but I don't think we're currently IN one. We are starting to see the market correct itself from all the mistakes WE made, the government made, and financial institutions made, and it very well may take a recession to allow for the market to completely correct itself. Payback is a ******... but we've lived through recessions before, in our lifetime, as have our parents.
It was BOUND to happen - this is the natural, cyclical progression of the market, that became EXAGGERATED by the inflated, unrealistic housing market. I don't know why it's such a shock to people. We need this for the market to readjust and go back to normal.
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| Posted 10/23/08 12:02 PM |
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dm24angel
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Donna
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
I thought they said the numbers indicated it WAS a reccession?
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| Posted 10/23/08 12:08 PM |
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CookiePuss
Cake from Outer Space!
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by Bxgell2
It was BOUND to happen - this is the natural, cyclical progression of the market, that became EXAGGERATED by the inflated, unrealistic housing market. I don't know why it's such a shock to people. We need this for the market to readjust and go back to normal.
I agree with you on most of what you are saying. I just believe we are already in a recession.
Even if we are headed for one, why are people so surprised? Why aren't people curbing their spending habits? I just don't get it.
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| Posted 10/23/08 12:09 PM |
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CookiePuss
Cake from Outer Space!
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by dm24angel
I thought they said the numbers indicated it WAS a reccession?
I recession is a decline of GDP for at least two quarters in a row. GDP is a lagging indicator so you don't know it's turning down until it has.
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| Posted 10/23/08 12:11 PM |
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Bxgell2
Perfection
Member since 5/05 16438 total posts
Name:
Beth
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by shamrock124
Posted by Bxgell2
It was BOUND to happen - this is the natural, cyclical progression of the market, that became EXAGGERATED by the inflated, unrealistic housing market. I don't know why it's such a shock to people. We need this for the market to readjust and go back to normal.
I agree with you on most of what you are saying. I just believe we are already in a recession.
Even if we are headed for one, why are people so surprised? Why aren't people curbing their spending habits? I just don't get it.
It boggles my mind - the panic, people saying we're heading for civil war, to pack up and live in the woods and start learning how to can our own foods 
I mean, COME ON people, history shows us time and time again that this is a natural and expected progression of a cyclical market. We have all lived through recessions, as have our parents, and made it through - it just necessitates some common sense, buckling down for a few harsh years, and budget and save.
I think too many of us have been spoiled by a good market for so long that it *seems* catastrauphic, but it isn't. This isn't anything new...
Message edited 10/23/2008 12:15:10 PM.
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| Posted 10/23/08 12:14 PM |
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CookiePuss
Cake from Outer Space!
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Re: Based on the news this AM, do people really believe we aren't in a recession already?
Posted by Bxgell2
It boggles my mind - the panic, people saying we're heading for civil war, to pack up and live in the woods and start learning how to can our own foods
I mean, COME ON people, history shows us time and time again that this is a natural and expected progression of a cyclical market. We have all lived through recessions, as have our parents, and made it through - it just necessitates some common sense, buckling down for a few harsh years, and budget and save.
I think too many of us have been spoiled by a good market for so long that it *seems* catastrauphic, but it isn't. This isn't anything new...
Unfortunately, I think channels like CNBC, CNN and such really feed it to this thinking and exasperate the situation.
The Money Honey isn't referring to this as a natural cycle, which it is as you pointed out. They scream the obvious making it newsworthy to lots of people. I wish they would start reporting the current economic state in terms of historical cycles.
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| Posted 10/23/08 12:25 PM |
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