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Christine2
LIF Adult
Member since 2/09 1216 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Yes, our % positive is really low, we had a major surge (the curve we wanted to avoid, actually). I wonder if we gained any significant herd immunity? Anyway, to answer your first question, I think the fear is that we live in a multistate nation and there is free travel between states. Other states that are surging may have individuals travelling here again. We may see reinfections as a result. I think in other nations (Europe for example) they would be able to reduce flow between nations much more easily. Other countries (like China), are so totalitarian that they can probably restrict travel more easily as well.
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Posted 7/23/20 6:22 PM  |
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PitterPatter11
Baby Boy is Here!
Member since 5/11 7612 total posts
Name:
Momma <3
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by Christine2
Yes, our % positive is really low, we had a major surge (the curve we wanted to avoid, actually). I wonder if we gained any significant herd immunity? Anyway, to answer your first question, I think the fear is that we live in a multistate nation and there is free travel between states. Other states that are surging may have individuals travelling here again. We may see reinfections as a result. I think in other nations (Europe for example) they would be able to reduce flow between nations much more easily. Other countries (like China), are so totalitarian that they can probably restrict travel more easily as well.
We have not achieved herd immunity. LI and NYC are at about 20-25%, but other regions of NY are 2-3%. The nation as a whole is not even close. We can’t look at ourselves as a closed system.
In my area, there was a Fourth of July party that has led to at least 33 new cases. It literally just takes one person for a hotspot to occur.
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| Posted 7/23/20 6:40 PM |
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valentinesbaby
LIF Adult
Member since 2/20 900 total posts
Name:
Valentines
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by PitterPatter11
Posted by Christine2
Yes, our % positive is really low, we had a major surge (the curve we wanted to avoid, actually). I wonder if we gained any significant herd immunity? Anyway, to answer your first question, I think the fear is that we live in a multistate nation and there is free travel between states. Other states that are surging may have individuals travelling here again. We may see reinfections as a result. I think in other nations (Europe for example) they would be able to reduce flow between nations much more easily. Other countries (like China), are so totalitarian that they can probably restrict travel more easily as well.
We have not achieved herd immunity. LI and NYC are at about 20-25%, but other regions of NY are 2-3%. The nation as a whole is not even close. We can’t look at ourselves as a closed system.
In my area, there was a Fourth of July party that has led to at least 33 new cases. It literally just takes one person for a hotspot to occur.
Not sure if you are on LI but they talked about a party that there were a group that got it.
Then this came out in Newsday 7/21
Dozens of Long Island residents tested for coronavirus got false positives
Seventy-four Long Island residents tested for COVID-19 over a five-day period earlier this month received false positive results, according to Nassau and Suffolk counties.
The impacted patients were tested between July 9 and July 14, according to the lab, which added that about 1.5% of patients tested in that period were affected. Sunrise did not say which doctors or urgent care centers use their labs. It added that there was a "possible COVID-19 specimen contamination issue."
Sunrise didn’t disclose how many tests it runs in week, or how many tests in total were impacted by the false positives.
Suffolk County said about 68 residents were affected. Suffolk, for now, is treating the cases as positive.
"Out of an abundance of caution, the [Department of Health] will still treat them as positive cases until the 14-day window to become symptomatic concludes or they test negative," Derek Poppe, a spokesman for County Executive Steve Bellone, wrote in an email. "Our contact tracers will still follow up with them daily to check in."
Over the weekend, Vermont officials said at least 30 patients received false positive results.
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| Posted 7/23/20 6:48 PM |
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mrsrainbow
LIF Adult
Member since 1/17 1465 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by blu6385
Posted by LMichele
Posted by mrsrainbow
we are not living in normal times. no matter how educated one thinks they are (and unless someone has receipts, multiple advanced degrees, peer reviewed research of their own writing, statistical samples, conducts independent reviews, writes their own thesis, etc etc etc etc) i simply don't want to hear people saying they're educated on this. no they aren't. no one is except advanced scientists who are actively working on COVID right now.
we have to follow the rules. period.
american exceptionalism does not exempt us from this. if someone can't figure out how to critically think and follow the rules, they are not nearly as educated as they think.
I am not sure what your response means. No one here claimed to be an expert on COVID or spoke out against wearing masks and not following rules.
I was waiting for an answer like this.
Don’t worry your post didn’t say anything like that but anytime you have questions on stuff that doesn’t make sense people like jump and say just following the rules, your not exempt or anexpert blah blah blah.
Even if it’s not relevant to your post 
Answers to her questions DON'T EXIST YET use critical thinking skills
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| Posted 7/23/20 7:13 PM |
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PitterPatter11
Baby Boy is Here!
Member since 5/11 7612 total posts
Name:
Momma <3
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by valentinesbaby
Posted by PitterPatter11
Posted by Christine2
Yes, our % positive is really low, we had a major surge (the curve we wanted to avoid, actually). I wonder if we gained any significant herd immunity? Anyway, to answer your first question, I think the fear is that we live in a multistate nation and there is free travel between states. Other states that are surging may have individuals travelling here again. We may see reinfections as a result. I think in other nations (Europe for example) they would be able to reduce flow between nations much more easily. Other countries (like China), are so totalitarian that they can probably restrict travel more easily as well.
We have not achieved herd immunity. LI and NYC are at about 20-25%, but other regions of NY are 2-3%. The nation as a whole is not even close. We can’t look at ourselves as a closed system.
In my area, there was a Fourth of July party that has led to at least 33 new cases. It literally just takes one person for a hotspot to occur.
Not sure if you are on LI but they talked about a party that there were a group that got it.
Then this came out in Newsday 7/21
Dozens of Long Island residents tested for coronavirus got false positives
Seventy-four Long Island residents tested for COVID-19 over a five-day period earlier this month received false positive results, according to Nassau and Suffolk counties.
The impacted patients were tested between July 9 and July 14, according to the lab, which added that about 1.5% of patients tested in that period were affected. Sunrise did not say which doctors or urgent care centers use their labs. It added that there was a "possible COVID-19 specimen contamination issue."
Sunrise didn’t disclose how many tests it runs in week, or how many tests in total were impacted by the false positives.
Suffolk County said about 68 residents were affected. Suffolk, for now, is treating the cases as positive.
"Out of an abundance of caution, the [Department of Health] will still treat them as positive cases until the 14-day window to become symptomatic concludes or they test negative," Derek Poppe, a spokesman for County Executive Steve Bellone, wrote in an email. "Our contact tracers will still follow up with them daily to check in."
Over the weekend, Vermont officials said at least 30 patients received false positive results.
I’m not on LI. Pretty much all positive cases in Albany county are linked to that party I mentioned. Albany County keeps having surges. I live in a neighboring county that had far fewer positives - 4-10 per day.
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| Posted 7/23/20 7:19 PM |
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soontobemommyof2
My boys...my everything <3
Member since 4/15 3635 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by LMichele
But I still don't get it. We have the precautions, we have the lower numbers, we also seem to have a lower death rate so did we somewhat figure out a treatment and/or are testing enough to catch it before it gets back.
Yes, natural herd immunity and I believe the same will happen with the southern states.
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| Posted 7/23/20 7:53 PM |
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RainyDay
LIF Adult
Member since 6/15 3986 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by soontobemommyof2
Posted by LMichele
But I still don't get it. We have the precautions, we have the lower numbers, we also seem to have a lower death rate so did we somewhat figure out a treatment and/or are testing enough to catch it before it gets back.
Yes, natural herd immunity and I believe the same will happen with the southern states.
Have officials stated its natural herd immunity?
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| Posted 7/23/20 8:14 PM |
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Christine2
LIF Adult
Member since 2/09 1216 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by PitterPatter11
Posted by Christine2
Yes, our % positive is really low, we had a major surge (the curve we wanted to avoid, actually). I wonder if we gained any significant herd immunity? Anyway, to answer your first question, I think the fear is that we live in a multistate nation and there is free travel between states. Other states that are surging may have individuals travelling here again. We may see reinfections as a result. I think in other nations (Europe for example) they would be able to reduce flow between nations much more easily. Other countries (like China), are so totalitarian that they can probably restrict travel more easily as well.
We have not achieved herd immunity. LI and NYC are at about 20-25%, but other regions of NY are 2-3%. The nation as a whole is not even close. We can’t look at ourselves as a closed system.
In my area, there was a Fourth of July party that has led to at least 33 new cases. It literally just takes one person for a hotspot to occur.
NY times reported that a clinic in Corona Queens had 68% test positive for antibodies against coronavirus. It may have been an outlier, and that area was one the ones hit the hardest, but maybe NYC isn't as susceptible to a second wave.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html
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| Posted 7/23/20 8:36 PM |
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RainyDay
LIF Adult
Member since 6/15 3986 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by Christine2
Posted by PitterPatter11
Posted by Christine2
Yes, our % positive is really low, we had a major surge (the curve we wanted to avoid, actually). I wonder if we gained any significant herd immunity? Anyway, to answer your first question, I think the fear is that we live in a multistate nation and there is free travel between states. Other states that are surging may have individuals travelling here again. We may see reinfections as a result. I think in other nations (Europe for example) they would be able to reduce flow between nations much more easily. Other countries (like China), are so totalitarian that they can probably restrict travel more easily as well.
We have not achieved herd immunity. LI and NYC are at about 20-25%, but other regions of NY are 2-3%. The nation as a whole is not even close. We can’t look at ourselves as a closed system.
In my area, there was a Fourth of July party that has led to at least 33 new cases. It literally just takes one person for a hotspot to occur.
NY times reported that a clinic in Corona Queens had 68% test positive for antibodies against coronavirus. It may have been an outlier, and that area was one the ones hit the hardest, but maybe NYC isn't as susceptible to a second wave.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html
How long before they got tested did they have Coronavirus vs having antibodies? Did they retest these same people again at a later date to see if they still had the antibodies?
It hasn't been around long enough to know if there is herd immunity. People have sworn that they had it and when they tested they were negative for antibodies. Also there have been several cases where a person tested positive , were tested for antibodies and then tested positive again.
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| Posted 7/23/20 8:58 PM |
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PitterPatter11
Baby Boy is Here!
Member since 5/11 7612 total posts
Name:
Momma <3
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by Christine2
Posted by PitterPatter11
Posted by Christine2
Yes, our % positive is really low, we had a major surge (the curve we wanted to avoid, actually). I wonder if we gained any significant herd immunity? Anyway, to answer your first question, I think the fear is that we live in a multistate nation and there is free travel between states. Other states that are surging may have individuals travelling here again. We may see reinfections as a result. I think in other nations (Europe for example) they would be able to reduce flow between nations much more easily. Other countries (like China), are so totalitarian that they can probably restrict travel more easily as well.
We have not achieved herd immunity. LI and NYC are at about 20-25%, but other regions of NY are 2-3%. The nation as a whole is not even close. We can’t look at ourselves as a closed system.
In my area, there was a Fourth of July party that has led to at least 33 new cases. It literally just takes one person for a hotspot to occur.
NY times reported that a clinic in Corona Queens had 68% test positive for antibodies against coronavirus. It may have been an outlier, and that area was one the ones hit the hardest, but maybe NYC isn't as susceptible to a second wave.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html
That is one clinic in the epicenter of the NY pandemic. NYS is very large. Other regions of NY have not seen close to the volume of cases as the tri-state area.
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| Posted 7/23/20 9:17 PM |
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soontobemommyof2
My boys...my everything <3
Member since 4/15 3635 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by PitterPatter11
Posted by Christine2
Yes, our % positive is really low, we had a major surge (the curve we wanted to avoid, actually). I wonder if we gained any significant herd immunity? Anyway, to answer your first question, I think the fear is that we live in a multistate nation and there is free travel between states. Other states that are surging may have individuals travelling here again. We may see reinfections as a result. I think in other nations (Europe for example) they would be able to reduce flow between nations much more easily. Other countries (like China), are so totalitarian that they can probably restrict travel more easily as well.
We have not achieved herd immunity. LI and NYC are at about 20-25%, but other regions of NY are 2-3%. The nation as a whole is not even close. We can’t look at ourselves as a closed system.
In my area, there was a Fourth of July party that has led to at least 33 new cases. It literally just takes one person for a hotspot to occur.
But those percentages are only from ppl
that have been tested. The majority of the population have not been tested and yet positive cases are so low and have been for some time. This is happening while ppl are getting together, visiting families, friends, having parties, not really following guidelines about masks and social distancing, or staying home. So obviously numbers are low not because every single person was and is following the guidelines but very much likely because herd immunity is happening. Other states have not had a peak with this virus and they’re just having it now. We had it already back in April/March. This is why I don’t believe another wave will happen. Yes, we’ll still see cases but not nearly as much as we once had. We’ll see what happens in the next few months with the southern states.
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| Posted 7/23/20 10:07 PM |
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soontobemommyof2
My boys...my everything <3
Member since 4/15 3635 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by blu6385
Posted by valentinesbaby
Posted by blu6385
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
And what makes anyone think Sept 2021 will be an different than now?
That's the other thing.
Unless the plan is to do away with in person school forever.
the vaccine will probably be out by then!!
I heard Deblasio say school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out!!
So at least he finally said it. The vaccine is the answer!
I am shocked so many people would be willing to take a brand new vaccine. One that hasn’t been tested and you don’t know what it will do to your body.
How do we not know that Covid will have less side effects to our body then a vaccine?
To me putting something in my body that is foreign is more of a risk. No thank you.
I don’t agree with it but I am just saying that seems to the the answer.
U’d actually be surprised with the amount of ppl that won’t get that vaccine (well at least that’s what they say now). What’s scary is the way DeBlasio worded it. He’s saying school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out. But what about the ppl that do not agree with giving this vaccine to their children, they won’t be allowed to go back to school? Are his plans (or at least those legislators that push hard to mandate vaccines) to come up with a bill that would make this vaccine mandatory? That is actually a really scary thought!
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| Posted 7/23/20 10:15 PM |
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shadows
LIF Adult
Member since 1/10 4694 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by soontobemommyof2
Posted by blu6385
Posted by valentinesbaby
Posted by blu6385
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
And what makes anyone think Sept 2021 will be an different than now?
That's the other thing.
Unless the plan is to do away with in person school forever.
the vaccine will probably be out by then!!
I heard Deblasio say school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out!!
So at least he finally said it. The vaccine is the answer!
I am shocked so many people would be willing to take a brand new vaccine. One that hasn’t been tested and you don’t know what it will do to your body.
How do we not know that Covid will have less side effects to our body then a vaccine?
To me putting something in my body that is foreign is more of a risk. No thank you.
I don’t agree with it but I am just saying that seems to the the answer.
U’d actually be surprised with the amount of ppl that won’t get that vaccine (well at least that’s what they say now). What’s scary is the way DeBlasio worded it. He’s saying school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out. But what about the ppl that do not agree with giving this vaccine to their children, they won’t be allowed to go back to school? Are his plans (or at least those legislators that push hard to mandate vaccines) to come up with a bill that would make this vaccine mandatory? That is actually a really scary thought!
Agree. Also, what if the vaccine is only like 30-40% effective like the flu vaccine often is? And yet life is hinging on this vaccine? It’s crazy to me.
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| Posted 7/23/20 10:23 PM |
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RainyDay
LIF Adult
Member since 6/15 3986 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by soontobemommyof2
Posted by blu6385
Posted by valentinesbaby
Posted by blu6385
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
And what makes anyone think Sept 2021 will be an different than now?
That's the other thing.
Unless the plan is to do away with in person school forever.
the vaccine will probably be out by then!!
I heard Deblasio say school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out!!
So at least he finally said it. The vaccine is the answer!
I am shocked so many people would be willing to take a brand new vaccine. One that hasn’t been tested and you don’t know what it will do to your body.
How do we not know that Covid will have less side effects to our body then a vaccine?
To me putting something in my body that is foreign is more of a risk. No thank you.
I don’t agree with it but I am just saying that seems to the the answer.
U’d actually be surprised with the amount of ppl that won’t get that vaccine (well at least that’s what they say now). What’s scary is the way DeBlasio worded it. He’s saying school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out. But what about the ppl that do not agree with giving this vaccine to their children, they won’t be allowed to go back to school? Are his plans (or at least those legislators that push hard to mandate vaccines) to come up with a bill that would make this vaccine mandatory? That is actually a really scary thought!
Why is that. Scary thought? There are plenty of other vaccinations kids need in order to go to school. Why is this any different?
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| Posted 7/23/20 11:34 PM |
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seaside
LIF Adult
Member since 6/08 3101 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Yeah...we keep mentioning how polio and small pox, etc. were defeated and did not last forever. This was because of mass-vaccination. If everyone who thinks they will be the exception to the rule refuses to be vaccinated, we may never achieve herd immunity.
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| Posted 7/24/20 12:56 PM |
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tourist
Member since 5/05 10425 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by shadows
Agree. Also, what if the vaccine is only like 30-40% effective like the flu vaccine often is? And yet life is hinging on this vaccine? It’s crazy to me.
I believe there are multiple vaccines that are close to trials, so we do have a few chances to get it right.
They are also working on treatments- so it will probably need to be a combination of those ( like how we have a flu vaccine & Tamiflu)
The reason the 1% positive is still a concern is that that if we aren't distancing, etc, those people could infect more & it spreads so fast & exponentially that it can get out of hand very easily. And then there is the issue of it being so much worse other places. If it was 1% nationwide, I wonder if things would be more relaxed. It has to be really frustrating in areas where there are few cases, like Sullivan County ( in the Catskills), where there are reported to be 5 known active cases right now.
Ideally, you want to quarantine only the sick & the known exposed, but it is hard to do that with this virus because of the asymptomatic cases which is why we have to distance. (And also in case any of the know sick people don't self quarantine.)
I think the comparison to the Spanish Flu is for dramatics. There are always things that can be learned form the past, but it isn't a 1:1 comparison. I feel like we hear this from the media, more than the doctors. The doctors compare it to to Sars & Mers, because they are similar viruses and they have a lot of research on them since they were recent.
The suspicion of a spike is because other viruses ( colds, flu) tend to go up in the winter. When people are indoors with the windows closed.
I wonder if some of the spikes in the south & west now are partially because those places are hot & people are indoors more, the way we are in the winter in addition to opening too early.
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| Posted 7/24/20 1:21 AM |
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SLPRunner
LIF Adult
Member since 12/13 1101 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by tourist
Posted by shadows
Agree. Also, what if the vaccine is only like 30-40% effective like the flu vaccine often is? And yet life is hinging on this vaccine? It’s crazy to me.
I believe there are multiple vaccines that are close to trials, so we do have a few chances to get it right.
They are also working on treatments- so it will probably need to be a combination of those ( like how we have a flu vaccine & Tamiflu)
The reason the 1% positive is still a concern is that that if we aren't distancing, etc, those people could infect more & it spreads so fast & exponentially that it can get out of hand very easily. And then there is the issue of it being so much worse other places. If it was 1% nationwide, I wonder if things would be more relaxed. It has to be really frustrating in areas where there are few cases, like Sullivan County ( in the Catskills), where there are reported to be 5 known active cases right now.
Ideally, you want to quarantine only the sick & the known exposed, but it is hard to do that with this virus because of the asymptomatic cases which is why we have to distance. (And also in case any of the know sick people don't self quarantine.)
I think the comparison to the Spanish Flu is for dramatics. There are always things that can be learned form the past, but it isn't a 1:1 comparison. I feel like we hear this from the media, more than the doctors. The doctors compare it to to Sars & Mers, because they are similar viruses and they have a lot of research on them since they were recent.
The suspicion of a spike is because other viruses ( colds, flu) tend to go up in the winter. When people are indoors with the windows closed.
I wonder if some of the spikes in the south & west now are partially because those places are hot & people are indoors more, the way we are in the winter in addition to opening too early.
they are blaming restaurants and bars and other large gatherings for increases.
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| Posted 7/24/20 8:53 AM |
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LittleDiva
LIF Adult
Member since 9/11 1284 total posts
Name:
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by seaside
Yeah...we keep mentioning how polio and small pox, etc. were defeated and did not last forever. This was because of mass-vaccination. If everyone who thinks they will be the exception to the rule refuses to be vaccinated, we may never achieve herd immunity.
Problem is, they are already saying it may only be a small percentage effective. I personally am not comfortable getting this for myself or my children if it’s not 90%+ effective and/or a long term study.
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| Posted 7/24/20 9:12 AM |
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MrsA1012
love my little girl !
Member since 9/10 5777 total posts
Name:
Me
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
Some scientists have theorized that NYC was initially hit so hard that there is a level of herd immunity stopping the spread.
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| Posted 7/24/20 9:17 AM |
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MrsA1012
love my little girl !
Member since 9/10 5777 total posts
Name:
Me
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Re: What am I not getting?
When people refer to herd immunity they are probably talking about NYC. Also, a number of scientists have argued that the rate for herd immunity is lower than originally thought ( perhaps in the 20 percent range) Let me see if I can find the articles I read on the subject.
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| Posted 7/24/20 9:21 AM |
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by LMichele
So I consider myself fairly education, although math and science weren't my strong points. I also keep up with the news each day and have been since March.
But I'm struggling to find the answers to these..
1. If our positive test results in NY have consistently be down to 1%, isn't the risk so much lower than it was when our positive results were 48%? Yes, I know people from out of state or those who travel can bring it in, and I know there are those who are asymptomatic, but wouldn't the risk of contracting COVID now be much lower than it was at the height of this in NY? Especially now that we have social distancing and mask orders in place.
2. Why is this pandemic constantly compared to the Spanish Flu? Haven't we come 100+ years in terms of science, technology, research, and medicine?
3. Why is COVID expected to spike again with the flu? It is not peak flu season right now, but it is running rampant across the country. Why is the fear that it will spike again with the flu?
Not trying to be snarky or rude, just really trying to understand all of this.
When you say "consider myself fairly education", did you mean educated?
1. Yes, the risk is lower now locally.
2. I haven't seen constant comparison to that at all, but regardless, the Spanish Flu was also new, unexpected and they needed to wear masks. That might be a reason why people associate it. Yes, there has been 100 years between these but it proves we haven't come far enough and that when something new or not yet understood emerges, it's still a setback because research needs to be done. Hey, they are working on vaccines and getting information faster than ever. So, it's not quite like the past.
3. Not just spike "with the flu", but they mean in the fall/winter season when all colds/viruses spike due to the weather - meaning people are inside more, airborne droplets linger longer, more social gatherings, less air circulating. Other factors that cause these viruses to circulate and spread faster.
The bottom line is for all instances of health - we would do better at preventative medicine. And we didn't prevent this. We needed a true, coordinated 2-4 week shut down with 100% mask use, and this would have been fine. Try doing anything with 100 different people trying to run the show and no one trusting each other. It's a mess. and therefore, our country became a mess.
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| Posted 7/24/20 9:53 AM |
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valentinesbaby
LIF Adult
Member since 2/20 900 total posts
Name:
Valentines
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by RainyDay
Posted by soontobemommyof2
Posted by blu6385
Posted by valentinesbaby
Posted by blu6385
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
And what makes anyone think Sept 2021 will be an different than now?
That's the other thing.
Unless the plan is to do away with in person school forever.
the vaccine will probably be out by then!!
I heard Deblasio say school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out!!
So at least he finally said it. The vaccine is the answer!
I am shocked so many people would be willing to take a brand new vaccine. One that hasn’t been tested and you don’t know what it will do to your body.
How do we not know that Covid will have less side effects to our body then a vaccine?
To me putting something in my body that is foreign is more of a risk. No thank you.
I don’t agree with it but I am just saying that seems to the the answer.
U’d actually be surprised with the amount of ppl that won’t get that vaccine (well at least that’s what they say now). What’s scary is the way DeBlasio worded it. He’s saying school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out. But what about the ppl that do not agree with giving this vaccine to their children, they won’t be allowed to go back to school? Are his plans (or at least those legislators that push hard to mandate vaccines) to come up with a bill that would make this vaccine mandatory? That is actually a really scary thought!
Why is that. Scary thought? There are plenty of other vaccinations kids need in order to go to school. Why is this any different?
Those vaccines have been around a very long time and been tested out. I am not, as well as my kids, going to be a guinea pig for science. They don’t get the flu shot either. They get what is required and has been out for awhile, nothing new.
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| Posted 7/24/20 1:49 PM |
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NervousNell
Just another chapter in life..
Member since 11/09 54917 total posts
Name:
..being a mommy and being a wife!
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by valentinesbaby
Posted by RainyDay
Posted by soontobemommyof2
Posted by blu6385
Posted by valentinesbaby
Posted by blu6385
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
And what makes anyone think Sept 2021 will be an different than now?
That's the other thing.
Unless the plan is to do away with in person school forever.
the vaccine will probably be out by then!!
I heard Deblasio say school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out!!
So at least he finally said it. The vaccine is the answer!
I am shocked so many people would be willing to take a brand new vaccine. One that hasn’t been tested and you don’t know what it will do to your body.
How do we not know that Covid will have less side effects to our body then a vaccine?
To me putting something in my body that is foreign is more of a risk. No thank you.
I don’t agree with it but I am just saying that seems to the the answer.
U’d actually be surprised with the amount of ppl that won’t get that vaccine (well at least that’s what they say now). What’s scary is the way DeBlasio worded it. He’s saying school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out. But what about the ppl that do not agree with giving this vaccine to their children, they won’t be allowed to go back to school? Are his plans (or at least those legislators that push hard to mandate vaccines) to come up with a bill that would make this vaccine mandatory? That is actually a really scary thought!
Why is that. Scary thought? There are plenty of other vaccinations kids need in order to go to school. Why is this any different?
Those vaccines have been around a very long time and been tested out. I am not, as well as my kids, going to be a guinea pig for science. They don’t get the flu shot either. They get what is required and has been out for awhile, nothing new.
I'd be leery too. The flu shot has done jack shit for my DD who gets it every year and got the flu twice with it.
I don't think the risk of Covid to her or me is worth the risk of this vaccine.
But many people do believe it's the bubonic plague with a close to 100% death rate so I would imagine they would get it.
I don't get the flu shot myself either.
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| Posted 7/24/20 3:39 PM |
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LMichele
LIF Adolescent
Member since 6/11 573 total posts
Name:
|
Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by BaysideForever
Posted by LMichele
So I consider myself fairly education, although math and science weren't my strong points. I also keep up with the news each day and have been since March.
But I'm struggling to find the answers to these..
1. If our positive test results in NY have consistently be down to 1%, isn't the risk so much lower than it was when our positive results were 48%? Yes, I know people from out of state or those who travel can bring it in, and I know there are those who are asymptomatic, but wouldn't the risk of contracting COVID now be much lower than it was at the height of this in NY? Especially now that we have social distancing and mask orders in place.
2. Why is this pandemic constantly compared to the Spanish Flu? Haven't we come 100+ years in terms of science, technology, research, and medicine?
3. Why is COVID expected to spike again with the flu? It is not peak flu season right now, but it is running rampant across the country. Why is the fear that it will spike again with the flu?
Not trying to be snarky or rude, just really trying to understand all of this.
When you say "consider myself fairly education", did you mean educated?
Yes, thank you for pointing out a typo due to autocorrect.
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| Posted 7/24/20 4:12 PM |
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valentinesbaby
LIF Adult
Member since 2/20 900 total posts
Name:
Valentines
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Re: What am I not getting?
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by valentinesbaby
Posted by RainyDay
Posted by soontobemommyof2
Posted by blu6385
Posted by valentinesbaby
Posted by blu6385
Posted by NervousNell
Posted by Naturalmama
Posted by NervousNell
For number 1- I have no idea. Kids were in school in March when things were bad and it was spreading like crazy- and they had no social distancing, had no masks, were in recess gym, buses, etc. And you didn't hear of any huge spikes among children and in schools
Now the transmission rate is much lower, but we are acting like it is way worse now than it was then.
That one always confuses me.
Also I see tons of kids playing together everywhere, the neighborhood, the beaches, the parks, camps, sleepovers, play dates, etc. And not hearing of kids getting sick or spiking numbers like crazy.
2 and 3 I really can't even speak to.
I find this confusing too. Reopening was going to cause a drastic spike. So was Memorial Day weekend. The protests. July 4th weekend. NONE of that caused huge surges. July 4th caused slight upticks, but nothing crazy.
The south has been surging since early June. So far, that has not affected us. I am not naive- I know it can, and probably eventually will. But I do not believe we will ever get back to where we were in March & April.
I do not believe we should do things like keep kids out of school UNLESS we start to see a concerning spike between now and Labor Day weekend. Because, then I don't feel like they will reopen at all until September of 2021. Which would be a NIGHTMARE.
And what makes anyone think Sept 2021 will be an different than now?
That's the other thing.
Unless the plan is to do away with in person school forever.
the vaccine will probably be out by then!!
I heard Deblasio say school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out!!
So at least he finally said it. The vaccine is the answer!
I am shocked so many people would be willing to take a brand new vaccine. One that hasn’t been tested and you don’t know what it will do to your body.
How do we not know that Covid will have less side effects to our body then a vaccine?
To me putting something in my body that is foreign is more of a risk. No thank you.
I don’t agree with it but I am just saying that seems to the the answer.
U’d actually be surprised with the amount of ppl that won’t get that vaccine (well at least that’s what they say now). What’s scary is the way DeBlasio worded it. He’s saying school will not return to full in person till the vaccine is out. But what about the ppl that do not agree with giving this vaccine to their children, they won’t be allowed to go back to school? Are his plans (or at least those legislators that push hard to mandate vaccines) to come up with a bill that would make this vaccine mandatory? That is actually a really scary thought!
Why is that. Scary thought? There are plenty of other vaccinations kids need in order to go to school. Why is this any different?
Those vaccines have been around a very long time and been tested out. I am not, as well as my kids, going to be a guinea pig for science. They don’t get the flu shot either. They get what is required and has been out for awhile, nothing new.
I'd be leery too. The flu shot has done jack shit for my DD who gets it every year and got the flu twice with it.
I don't think the risk of Covid to her or me is worth the risk of this vaccine.
But many people do believe it's the bubonic plague with a close to 100% death rate so I would imagine they would get it.
I don't get the flu shot myself either.
I don’t either and knock on wood I don’t remember the last time I had the flu. I get sick but it usually runs it’s 1 week course.
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| Posted 7/24/20 4:50 PM |
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| Pages: 1 [2] 3 |
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