| Posted By |
Message |
| Pages: [1] 2 |
SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
|
Do you believe a recession is coming?
I just read a pretty scary article on CNN.com about the economy and how the Fed is concerned about a recession b/c of the housing market, poor credit market, the price of oil and the weak dollar.
article
your thoughts?
|
Posted 11/8/07 11:14 AM  |
| |
|
Long Island Weddings
Long Island's Largest Bridal Resource |
bomb-blast
bye bye
Member since 11/06 1327 total posts
Name:
Leo
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Um, I think it's here already...
|
| Posted 11/8/07 11:15 AM |
| |
|
SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
I can't believe the price of oil is almost at $100 a barrel 
|
| Posted 11/8/07 11:16 AM |
| |
|
headoverheels
s'il vous plaît
Member since 6/07 42079 total posts
Name:
LB
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
i think it is here, and getting worse - and i think the job market is going to get hit very hard next year 
|
| Posted 11/8/07 11:17 AM |
| |
|
SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by headoverheels
i think it is here, and getting worse - and i think the job market is going to get hit very hard next year
the job market is horrible on LI and has been for a very long time!! 
|
| Posted 11/8/07 11:17 AM |
| |
|
eroxgirl
My Loves
Member since 5/05 15697 total posts
Name:
Rebecca
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by bomb-blast
Um, I think it's here already...
Exactly. We're headed for a depression if things don't turn around.
|
| Posted 11/8/07 11:21 AM |
| |
|
LIPrincess
Foxy Lady
Member since 6/05 1610 total posts
Name:
Jaimie
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
I absolutely think its here and I think its going to get worse before it gets better.
|
| Posted 11/8/07 11:24 AM |
| |
|
KPtoys
I'm getting old
Member since 5/05 8688 total posts
Name:
Karen
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
yup
|
| Posted 11/8/07 11:27 AM |
| |
|
KGools
Happy
Member since 9/06 9532 total posts
Name:
Kim
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
I agree... I think we're in the beginning stages of a recession. Thankfully there is a presidential election coming up and hopefully whoever is elected will be able to turn things around 
|
| Posted 11/8/07 11:27 AM |
| |
|
SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by CoopersMom01
I agree... I think we're in the beginning stages of a recession. Thankfully there is a presidential election coming up and hopefully whoever is elected will be able to turn things around
yes but a new President won't even take office till January 2009
|
| Posted 11/8/07 11:28 AM |
| |
|
KGools
Happy
Member since 9/06 9532 total posts
Name:
Kim
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by SweetestOfPeas
Posted by CoopersMom01
I agree... I think we're in the beginning stages of a recession. Thankfully there is a presidential election coming up and hopefully whoever is elected will be able to turn things around
yes but a new President won't even take office till January 2009
True, but that's better than 4 more years of what we've got right now, right?
|
| Posted 11/8/07 11:29 AM |
| |
|
SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by CoopersMom01
Posted by SweetestOfPeas
Posted by CoopersMom01
I agree... I think we're in the beginning stages of a recession. Thankfully there is a presidential election coming up and hopefully whoever is elected will be able to turn things around
yes but a new President won't even take office till January 2009
True, but that's better than 4 more years of what we've got right now, right?
RIGHT!!
|
| Posted 11/8/07 12:04 PM |
| |
|
Emily
Kasey & Me! Lurves it!
Member since 7/06 8703 total posts
Name:
STBHC
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
We have been in a recession since the war started. Gas, milk, flour, etc... is up way too hgh. We are on the verge of depression. Even in suburbia there are issues. When people cannot afford their homes hence do not spend money in local stores, people move and stores close down. When you see a lot of for sale and for lease signs that means we are on the verge of a depression.
eta: the dollar is practically worthless. You used to be able to go to France, Canada and many other countries and exchange your money to get cheap goods. Now you cannot buy cr@p for the dollar, it is worth less than a square of toilet paper.
Message edited 11/8/2007 12:06:18 PM.
|
| Posted 11/8/07 12:04 PM |
| |
|
Ang-Rich
Beyond Compare
Member since 5/05 17988 total posts
Name:
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
I do...we see so many signs of it too...between the cost of living changes, job market, housing and credit...it's scary
I see so many families (including mine) cutting back more and more.
|
| Posted 11/8/07 12:15 PM |
| |
|
SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by Emily
eta: the dollar is practically worthless. You used to be able to go to France, Canada and many other countries and exchange your money to get cheap goods. Now you cannot buy cr@p for the dollar, it is worth less than a square of toilet paper.
I still can't believe the Canadian dollar is worth more than ours! 
|
| Posted 11/8/07 12:25 PM |
| |
|
SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by Ang-Rich
I do...we see so many signs of it too...between the cost of living changes, job market, housing and credit...it's scary
I see so many families (including mine) cutting back more and more.
I see it too. and when oil costs what it does, people still need to drive to work and heat their homes. so the extra money people are spending on fuel is cutting into other things that people are scaling back on like dinning out, vacations, shopping, etc.
|
| Posted 11/8/07 12:27 PM |
| |
|
Maathy317
Grammie's Little Man
Member since 2/06 3235 total posts
Name:
D
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Absolutely! It's not only coming, it's here. When you combine the national debt (9 TRILLION dollars), the housing market, how weak the dollar is against the euro, the price of oil, the reaction on Wall Street and the strong possibility that foreign markets are more likely not to invest in U.S. goods because of the dollar, you have a recession. It's just not being called that yet. The Fed keeps cutting interest rates to try and fend off a deep recession, but, there's only so much you can cut. This holiday buying season should tell all. If retail sales are way down (which is a distinct possibility), we are in for a hard time. This isn't going to be pretty.
|
| Posted 11/8/07 12:29 PM |
| |
|
|
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by bomb-blast
Um, I think it's here already...
yep, I think so too. I just think there's a lot of media spin trying to make the public feel better, so they don't panic and the economy sinks even farther...
they'll say 6 months from now 'economists say we've been in a recession in the last 9 months'.... and people will think 'well it hasn't been THAT bad', and no panic will set-in.
|
| Posted 11/8/07 1:12 PM |
| |
|
SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by marriedinportjeff
Posted by bomb-blast
Um, I think it's here already...
yep, I think so too. I just think there's a lot of media spin trying to make the public feel better, so they don't panic and the economy sinks even farther...
they'll say 6 months from now 'economists say we've been in a recession in the last 9 months'.... and people will think 'well it hasn't been THAT bad', and no panic will set-in.
you really think so? my opinion of the media is that they're sensationalists and over-state everything. so why would this be an exception?
|
| Posted 11/8/07 1:20 PM |
| |
|
melbalalala
Little Lady
Member since 5/07 5014 total posts
Name:
Melissa
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by CoopersMom01
I agree... I think we're in the beginning stages of a recession. Thankfully there is a presidential election coming up and hopefully whoever is elected will be able to turn things around
First, let me say that I am an Economist (for the Federal govt in DC). The first thing you learn in Econ 101 is that a President has VERY little control over the economy.
There are VERY few things a President can do to get a country out of a recession. Every tax cut, minimum wage change, subisdy, grant, etc. while it may help some people, has a negative effect on others and in most instances cancels itself out. (The Fed is really the only organization that can have a direct impact on the economy)
I definitely don't think we are anywhere NEAR a depression. People were saying things like that when the tech bubble burst too and we survived that.
I personally like to think that we arent having a housing "crisis", but that the housing market is self-adjusting itself to get back to normal.
|
| Posted 11/8/07 1:27 PM |
| |
|
Ltdentway99
LIF Adult
Member since 9/06 1752 total posts
Name:
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Ah, I loved informed people. There is so much negativity and hype all around. The problem with most Americans is that we spend too much. Things are getting more and more expensive, jobs are getting more competitive, it's harder to make a good income, house prices are inflated, the list goes on. I think it's just the course that this country is on.
Posted by melbalalala
Posted by CoopersMom01
I agree... I think we're in the beginning stages of a recession. Thankfully there is a presidential election coming up and hopefully whoever is elected will be able to turn things around
First, let me say that I am an Economist (for the Federal govt in DC). The first thing you learn in Econ 101 is that a President has VERY little control over the economy.
There are VERY few things a President can do to get a country out of a recession. Every tax cut, minimum wage change, subisdy, grant, etc. while it may help some people, has a negative effect on others and in most instances cancels itself out. (The Fed is really the only organization that can have a direct impact on the economy)
I definitely don't think we are anywhere NEAR a depression. People were saying things like that when the tech bubble burst too and we survived that.
I personally like to think that we arent having a housing "crisis", but that the housing market is self-adjusting itself to get back to normal.
|
| Posted 11/8/07 1:34 PM |
| |
|
SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by melbalalala
Posted by CoopersMom01
I agree... I think we're in the beginning stages of a recession. Thankfully there is a presidential election coming up and hopefully whoever is elected will be able to turn things around
First, let me say that I am an Economist (for the Federal govt in DC). The first thing you learn in Econ 101 is that a President has VERY little control over the economy.
There are VERY few things a President can do to get a country out of a recession. Every tax cut, minimum wage change, subisdy, grant, etc. while it may help some people, has a negative effect on others and in most instances cancels itself out. (The Fed is really the only organization that can have a direct impact on the economy)
I definitely don't think we are anywhere NEAR a depression. People were saying things like that when the tech bubble burst too and we survived that.
I personally like to think that we arent having a housing "crisis", but that the housing market is self-adjusting itself to get back to normal.
I agree with many points that you made....
but, if most of the US doesn't trust or like the President, that does have a negative impact on the way they spend their money. add to that the HUUUUGE trade deficit we have, the war and how much that has cost us and the price of oil being at a ridiculous $97 a barrel... not to mention the sub-prime disaster and housing market is not stabilizing - this is not at all a good situation!
|
| Posted 11/8/07 1:42 PM |
| |
|
melbalalala
Little Lady
Member since 5/07 5014 total posts
Name:
Melissa
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by Ellebelle1
Ah, I loved informed people. There is so much negativity and hype all around. The problem with most Americans is that we spend too much. Things are getting more and more expensive, jobs are getting more competitive, it's harder to make a good income, house prices are inflated, the list goes on. I think it's just the course that this country is on.
 informed Thanks!
Another nerdy economic thing Id like to share...
I read a paper recently, that said one of the reasons that housing prices were ridiculously high (outpacing inflation by ALOT) was because of our mother's generations "insistance" on being in the workforce. Sounds sexist and awful, right? I was immediately disgusted...
Well, think about it.. back in the day, almost every household was a "one income household". Then women entered the workforce, and alot of them stayed in the workforce even though they had kids... so, a household that used to make $40K was now making probably $75K... and that kept going up and up and up.
Now its the norm for women to go to college, earn equal to men and double a "household income". So while a mortgage may have been 20% of a households income.. it could now become 40% of a households income, so a house that was $120,000 could easily be sold for $200,000 (holding inflation constant) because a two income household could afford it.
So, now it is pretty much impossible for the majority of Americans to have one person work and afford a house, and a life.
Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but Ive been dying to share this with SOMEONE.
|
| Posted 11/8/07 1:43 PM |
| |
|
SweetestOfPeas
J'taime Paris!
Member since 3/06 32345 total posts
Name:
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by melbalalala
Posted by Ellebelle1
Ah, I loved informed people. There is so much negativity and hype all around. The problem with most Americans is that we spend too much. Things are getting more and more expensive, jobs are getting more competitive, it's harder to make a good income, house prices are inflated, the list goes on. I think it's just the course that this country is on.
informed Thanks!
Another nerdy economic thing Id like to share...
I read a paper recently, that said one of the reasons that housing prices were ridiculously high (outpacing inflation by ALOT) was because of our mother's generations "insistance" on being in the workforce. Sounds sexist and awful, right? I was immediately disgusted...
Well, think about it.. back in the day, almost every household was a "one income household". Then women entered the workforce, and alot of them stayed in the workforce even though they had kids... so, a household that used to make $40K was now making probably $75K... and that kept going up and up and up.
Now its the norm for women to go to college, earn equal to men and double a "household income". So while a mortgage may have been 20% of a households income.. it could now become 40% of a households income, so a house that was $120,000 could easily be sold for $200,000 (holding inflation constant) because a two income household could afford it.
So, now it is pretty much impossible for the majority of Americans to have one person work and afford a house, and a life.
Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but Ive been dying to share this with SOMEONE.
this I totally agree with!
|
| Posted 11/8/07 1:44 PM |
| |
|
melbalalala
Little Lady
Member since 5/07 5014 total posts
Name:
Melissa
|
Re: Do you believe a recession is coming?
Posted by SweetestOfPeas
I agree with many points that you made....
but, if most of the US doesn't trust or like the President, that does have a negative impact on the way they spend their money. add to that the HUUUUGE trade deficit we have, the war and how much that has cost us and the price of oil being at a ridiculous $97 a barrel... not to mention the sub-prime disaster and housing market is not stabilizing - this is not at all a good situation!
Hmm... I can't STAND the current president... havent for 7 years.. but in that 7 years spent a ton of money (grad school, a house, etc.) Im not really sure I'm following you?
We have had a huge trade deficit for years.. the price of oil has alot to do with the weak dollar everyone has mentioned.
This is a personal thought, and has no factual evidence, but I do see the sub-prime disaster as a natural economic stabilizer. It's been said before on these boards, that people bought above their means using crazy types of mortgages. The market is self-correcting itself by forcing these people to foreclose on houses they cant afford, the banks have to sell these houses at a lower price than they were bought for, and in the long-run houses SHOULD go down to a more "normal" level... I think..
Message edited 11/8/2007 1:58:40 PM.
|
| Posted 11/8/07 1:57 PM |
| |
|
| Pages: [1] 2 |
